Cain Leads Romney in latest trend estimates

Herman Cain’s surge since the Florida straw poll has now moved him into first place in the GOP nomination race, based on my trend estimate of support. Cain now leads Romney 25.5% to 23.7%. This includes a new NBC/WSJ poll that puts Cain at 27% to Romney’s 23, and a PPP poll putting Cain at 30% to Romney’s 22%. Another new poll, by Reuters/Ipsos has Romney ahead, 23% to 19%. And today’s Rasmussen has a 29-29 tie.

What all the recent polls agree on is that Cain is enjoying a huge surge while Romney remains stable in the 20%-25% range.

We’ve seen these surges throughout the GOP race this year. Here is an update of my previous chart of GOP surges. Cain has not yet reached the levels Perry jumped to, but he now eclipses the Trump and Bachmann surges.

With the increased support comes increased scrutiny, which we’ve already seen since Tuesday’s debate and this flurry of new polls. Will Cain be the first not-Romney candidate to sustain his surge, or fall back as the others have done? Stay tuned.