A new PPP poll in Iowa gives us our first new data in five days and it adds to the evidence that Newt Gingrich is suffering a sharp downturn in the first caucus state. See the PPP story here and full results here.
PPP’s last three polls have had Gingrich at 27, 22 and now 14, a within pollster trend that is especially convincing. Last week’s Rasmussen poll showed an even larger drop, from 32 to 20 in their last two polls. The exception is Insider Advantage, whose two most recent polls were 28 and 27.
As the chart above shows the standard, and conservative, gray trend estimate is just beginning to turn down, given the rapidity of the reversal of fortune and “Gray’s” demand for quite a bit of data after a turn. But the more sensitive red trend estimate is now fully convinced and has shot down. As always, caution is required with “Red” who often gets carried away by sharp trends and outliers, especially at the end of the series. But the headline still has to be that Newt has gone from strong front runner to at best third place.
Now holding first place in PPP’s Iowa poll is Ron Paul. (Note in my overview of the race I rank all candidates by the standard trend estimate, which still puts Gingrich in 1st place in Iowa.) With a reportedly strong ground organization the libertarian Paul may have a serious chance of winning in Iowa, especially if the media driven Gingrich support withers away.
In the national polling, the only new data is Gallup’s daily tracker which confirms Gingrich’s fall from recent highs though the tracker was unchanged from the day before.