Final New Hampshire Trend Estimates

An ARG poll released late Monday is what I expect to be the last polling update for New Hampshire. So we will call this the last update, baring a surprise Tuesday morning.

For those interested in handicapping the race, I stand by the gray “standard” trend estimate. The more sensitive red and last fortnight only blue lines are fun to speculate about, and sometimes they respond better to late breaking news. But they also are often fooled by an outlier or a significant house effect. The standard trend isn’t as flashy but has had a good track record since 2006. It balances responsiveness with some circumspection.