Florida Endgame

I’ve been a little busy with polling in Wisconsin this past week and updates fell behind. Here is a Monday night update for Florida. Thanks @JoeLenski for the nudge.

As the entire world knows by now, Romney has moved up substantially in the last week, while Gingrich’s week has not been a good one. The Fortnight Review above gives a zoomed in look at the last two weeks. Note the gap between the pre-SC polls and the start of the post-SC polling on the 22nd. With a gap like that between polls, it might be better to just look at polls since the 22nd. If so, Mitt has gained about 10 or a shade more, while Newt has dropped something like 8 or so.

The end result is the standard trend putting Romney at 39.7 and Gingrich at 31.7, with Santorum at 11.5 and Paul at 10.2. The more sensitive redline estimate sees a bit more trend than the gray standard, making Romney at 42.4, Gingrich 28.2, Santorum 12.5 and Paul 10.8.  The last fortnight of polling is pretty similar to the sensitive estimator.

As always, I’ll stand with the standard trend. So there, @JoeLenski, those are my priors.

Here is the long run chart for Florida for the long run perspective of how this race has moved so much.