Iowa Caucus Polling Performance

This is a PRELIMINARY look at how the polls did in Iowa. With 96% of precincts reporting the candidate’s final percentages can’t change much but may shift a bit and may change the leader, given how close the count is right now with 96% in.

The polls overall did pretty well on Romney but all underestimated Santorum’s final percentage. Given his late surge this is not a surprise but it illustrates the difficulty of taking final polls as predictive for late breaking candidates.

The earlier polls were mostly further away on Santorum, which is further evidence that it was his surge rather than simple error that produced the underestimates of the Santorum vote.

I’ll update this post when the 100% vote is in, and provide more details on the polling on Wednesday.