Probably the last Iowa poll. PPP has Romney down 5 from DMR/Selzer’s result. Santorum up a bit.
My trend estimate says Romney will finish first with a tossup between Paul and Santorum. If you believe in momentum, then Santorum has an advantage there. Newt seems likely 4th with little apparent movement up from Perry and Gingrich slide seemingly stabilized.
If Romney does finish 1st, I would expect everyone else to go to South Carolina, except for Paul and Huntsman. Latest Suffolk poll shows huge Romney lead in NH. You can’t stop him in NH so give it to him and move to his most challenging state of the first four.
PPP is more bearish on Romney than my trends but I’ll stick with the trend. Trend is also slightly worse for Paul, making me give Santorum a slight edge for 2nd.