Florida Endgame

I’ve been a little busy with polling in Wisconsin this past week and updates fell behind. Here is a Monday night update for Florida. Thanks @JoeLenski for the nudge.

As the entire world knows by now, Romney has moved up substantially in the last week, while Gingrich’s week has not been a good one. The Fortnight Review above gives a zoomed in look at the last two weeks. Note the gap between the pre-SC polls and the start of the post-SC polling on the 22nd. With a gap like that between polls, it might be better to just look at polls since the 22nd. If so, Mitt has gained about 10 or a shade more, while Newt has dropped something like 8 or so.

The end result is the standard trend putting Romney at 39.7 and Gingrich at 31.7, with Santorum at 11.5 and Paul at 10.2. The more sensitive redline estimate sees a bit more trend than the gray standard, making Romney at 42.4, Gingrich 28.2, Santorum 12.5 and Paul 10.8.  The last fortnight of polling is pretty similar to the sensitive estimator.

As always, I’ll stand with the standard trend. So there, @JoeLenski, those are my priors.

Here is the long run chart for Florida for the long run perspective of how this race has moved so much.

Monday Iowa Caucus Update

We got two new polls Monday morning, from Insider Advantage and ARG. Not much changes.

There seems to be a bit more variation in Paul’s polling, and a shade more consistency in Santorum’s trend. Romney leads consistently but by varying amounts, notably low in PPP’s last poll.

The bottom line is “Expectations” make it a Romney, Paul or Santorum, Gingrich order of finish. Anything else is a “Surprise”.

PPP Iowa Caucus Update

Probably the last Iowa poll. PPP has Romney down 5 from DMR/Selzer’s result. Santorum up a bit.

My trend estimate says Romney will finish first with a tossup between Paul and Santorum. If you believe in momentum, then Santorum has an advantage there. Newt seems likely 4th with little apparent movement up from Perry and Gingrich slide seemingly stabilized.

If Romney does finish 1st, I would expect everyone else to go to South Carolina, except for Paul and Huntsman. Latest Suffolk poll shows huge Romney lead in NH. You can’t stop him in NH so give it to him and move to his most challenging state of the first four.

PPP is more bearish on Romney than my trends but I’ll stick with the trend. Trend is also slightly worse for Paul, making me give Santorum a slight edge for 2nd.