I’ll be keeping track of the 2024 general election here and in subsequent posts under the “Pres2024” menu above. I’ll update regularly but not daily, let alone instantly for each new poll. Think of this as “slow polls” with some perspective, not “hot polls” for the latest shocking result.

I’ll be presenting three basic ways of looking at the horse-race trends. The first two are utterly familiar, but the third is not, and is my effort to give a better perspective on polling uncertainty than the usual. Give it a chance.

Biden vs Trump

The basic trend chart for each candidate shows both all the polls and the trend lines (estimated via local regression, as are all my trends). I scale these through Election Day to emphasize both where we are today and how much of the race is left to go.

A fundamental point is that I show these trends not to predict the outcome but to show how we get there. So much commentary either treats today’s polls as forecasts or dismisses them as meaningless. Neither is true. It is the ebb and flow of candidate support that defines the shape of the race but the outcome is uncertain even near the end. Don’t either overvalue or undervalue current polls. Watch how support is changing.

The candidate trends

The first “standard” figure shows the polls and trends for each candidate. This update shows Trump fell after the November elections, but has improved pretty steadily since January, closing the gap while Biden’s support has been flat. The Trump trend is now just slightly ahead of Biden. It is Trump’s gains over the last four months that are notable, not that Biden has fallen over that period, which he hasn’t. In fact, Biden’s support rose in the run-up to the 2022 elections and has remained at that (modestly) improved level compared to the first part of 2022 when Trump has a slight advantage.

The margin trend

The second standard trend is the margin between the candidates. I show Democrat minus Republican margin here. This is just the gap between the blue line and red line above, but focusing on the margin has a couple of advantages. First, “who’s ahead” matters, and this shows that directly. Movement in the margin may also be more apparent with just a single trend line than having to perceive the difference of two lines. Second, votes for 3rd party candidates or undecided responses can lower the support for both candidates but not affect the margin between them. I think that an advantage of the margin plot. (Some good folks disagree on this, but I say why choose between them? I show you both. Focus on what pleases you.)

The Biden minus Trump margin trend shows the tightening of the race since January. It also makes clear that Trump had a small advantage in 2022 until close to the election, after which Biden has generally had the edge, though the margin has tightened since January. Note here you can’t see which candidate changed, an advantage of the separate candidate trends above. But here you see how close the race has been and how the advantage has shifted regardless of who moved.

The distribution of support

One of the hardest things to get across is the uncertainty of polling results. Each new polls has the potential to upset the narrative, all the more so if it is an outlier. Stories and Tweets chase this new shiny object either saying it changes everything or it is a ridiculously flawed poll that means nothing. Alas, I’ve tried since Mark Blumenthal and I founded Pollster.com in 2006 to get people to appreciate the variability in polls and to stop freaking out over a single result. I have utterly failed in that mission. But not to let that stop me, here is another way to try for perspective on uncertainty.

In the trend plots above, I plot each individual poll to show how much variation there is around the trend line. This spread should draw the eye and invite the comparison of small trend changes and wide spread of individual polls around that trend. This was the fundamental contribution of Pollster.com’s graphics, compared to earlier simple lists of polls and an average.

But here is a third way to presenting how the polls vary and how the campaign changes. Let’s simply focus on the distribution of polls over a period of time and compare to another period.

The trend estimates give a line, the estimate at every point in time. Instead, let’s be a lot more modest and say “here is a group of 2 months worth of polls.” Instead of focusing on trend, let’s just pay attention to how those polls varied. And then let’s compare that with the next 2 months of poll. (I use 2 months to get enough polls in each group for the distribution to be reasonably clear.)

The third chart below shows these distributions for Biden and for Trump support for January & February 2023 and for March through the latest poll (May 7th). You can see how the Biden distribution was to the right of Trumps, even as some individual polls have Trump ahead in Jan-Feb. But in March-May 7, the two distributions have substantially converged, without a clear advantage for either candidate. The Biden distribution has shifted slightly to the left and Trump a little more to the right, producing the current overlap. (The little lines on the x axis are individuals polls for each candidate. Some overlap, obscuring the number of polls, which is shown in the subtitle of the char.)

You might also notice both distributions are a bit narrower in March-May, showing a little more agreement across polls.

The primary perspective is that over each of these 2 month groupings, each poll could be thought of as just a random draw from this distribution, so if you see polls varying by as much as shown in the chart, that just means “it’s Tuesday.” You can get more interested in how these distributions change over time though, because that IS showing you that the race is shifting. By grouping into 2 month periods, I want to de-emphasize daily noise that appears in the first two trend charts and encourage you to take a deep breath, be patient, but see more of the “real” evolution of the race that comes with a wider time interval and more appreciation for the variability in the polls.

The fourth and final chart shows the distribution of the margin between Biden and Trump, as the second chart shows the trend in margin. Here you again see the spread of poll margins in each 2 month period, and notice the shift to a closer race in March-May. I also add the number of polls with each candidate leading and the number of ties. The balance of number of leads also helps focus the mind that “your candidate” isn’t leading every poll (or trailing either.)

I don’t expect any of this to prevent the next freak-out over a surprising poll. I do hope those looking for a bit more perspective, even at the cost of momentary excitement, will find these charts helpful for appreciating the dynamics of the 2024 presidential campaign.