I’ve been shocked to hear several sources I respect get the midterm seat loss story wrong. So here is my effort to clarify.

The president’s party almost always loses House seats, but there have been 4* exceptions since 1862: 1902, 1934, 1998 & 2002. *HOWEVER in 1902 the House expanded so while Reps gained seats Dems gained more, thus Reps won a smaller percentage of seats that year. So the presidents party has lost strength in all but 3 midterms since 1862.

In the Senate the president’s party usually loses seats, but not as reliably as in the House. There have been 6 exceptions since 1960.

There is little difference, on average, in House seat losses in 1st vs 2nd midterms. An average -26.4 in 1st and -28.1 in 2nd. NO SIX YEAR ITCH! NO 1ST MIDTERM CURSE EITHER, for that matter.

2nd midterms HAVE been worse in the Senate: -2.3 in 1st, -6.0 in 2nd.

So PLEASE stop saying the president’s party only gains seats “once in the last 100 years”– you know who you are. The right answer is “three times in the last 100 years.”

And don’t imply the Senate is as predictable as the House. They aren’t the same.

And… 1st term vs 2nd? Nah. This is another rant as many people bring up “first midterm” (and in a 2nd term almost always talk about the “second midterm”) as if that mattered. It doesn’t, on average. It does vary across presidencies with some bigger losses in 1st and some in 2nd midterm.

And will 2022 be different? I don’t know. But we should get the history right.

Data details

These seat changes reflect the immediate outcome of the November election. Sometimes members die, change party or resign before the Congress is sworn in, and of course changes can occur during the Congress.

Brookings hosts Vital Statistics on Congress. Note they have a typo for 1998 indicating a loss rather than a gain. I use them here with that fix

Here is the Vital Statistics table.

Small differences if you use the Clerk of the House table, p59