Abortion policy, issue concern and enthusiasm to vote
Are abortion policy preferences linked to motivation to vote and to concern about the issue of abortion, and what role does partisanship play? I assess this using data from the Marquette Law School Poll of 803 Wisconsin registered voters, conducted June 14-20, 2022, a week before the US Supreme Court struck down the Roe v Wade decision on June 24, but well after the draft opinion in this case became public in May.
There has been a consistent majority of Wisconsin registered voters who favor legal abortions in all or most cases, and a minority who say abortion should be illegal in all or most cases. Surveys over the past decade have shown very little change in opinion, as shown in Table 1.
| Poll dates | Legal in all cases | Legal in most cases | Illegal in most cases | Illegal in all cases |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/13-16/12 | 26 | 34 | 23 | 13 |
| 9/27-30/12 | 25 | 35 | 23 | 12 |
| 10/11-14/12 | 25 | 34 | 25 | 12 |
| 10/25-28/12 | 28 | 32 | 23 | 12 |
| 10/21-24/13 | 26 | 36 | 25 | 10 |
| 10/23-26/14 | 24 | 34 | 24 | 15 |
| 7/11-15/18 | 27 | 36 | 18 | 11 |
| 9/12-16/18 | 26 | 36 | 21 | 9 |
| 10/24-28/18 | 26 | 29 | 24 | 14 |
| 2/19-23/20 | 18 | 37 | 22 | 15 |
| 10/26-31/21 | 23 | 38 | 23 | 11 |
| 6/14-20/22 | 27 | 31 | 24 | 11 |
There is little difference in enthusiasm to vote except among those who think abortion should be illegal in most cases. Those in the two pro-abortion categories, and those with the most anti-abortion preference are all equally motivated to vote. This gives no support for the idea that the abortion issue would be uniquely motivating to pro-abortion voters. Of course this could change, but the draft opinion does not appear to have motivated supporters of abortion to greater political engagement. Rather those who say abortion should be illegal in most cases are the more enthusiastic to vote in these data.
| Abortion policy preference | Very enthusiastic | Less enthusiastic | DK/Ref |
|---|---|---|---|
| Legal in all cases | 56 | 42 | 2 |
| Legal in most cases | 56 | 42 | 1 |
| Illegal in most cases | 68 | 32 | 0 |
| Illegal in all cases | 57 | 43 | 0 |
Abortion policy preference and concern about the issue
Those who think abortion should always be legal or always be illegal are the most concerned about abortion policy, while those in the middle categories of legal in most cases or illegal in most cases are substantially less concerned.
Those with the strongest anti-abortion preference express more concern for abortion policy than do the strongest pro-abortion advocates by a small margin.
| Abortion policy preference | Very concerned | Less concerned | DK/Ref |
|---|---|---|---|
| Legal in all cases | 66 | 34 | 0 |
| Legal in most cases | 53 | 46 | 1 |
| Illegal in most cases | 51 | 42 | 7 |
| Illegal in all cases | 73 | 27 | 0 |
Age and abortion preference and concern
There is virtually no relationship between age and abortion preference. Only those 70 years old or older are a bit less supportive of abortion than the other age groups.
| Age | Legal in all or most | Illegal in all or most | Don’t know |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18-29 | 62 | 38 | 1 |
| 30-39 | 60 | 30 | 6 |
| 40-49 | 60 | 34 | 5 |
| 50-59 | 60 | 35 | 5 |
| 60-69 | 57 | 35 | 5 |
| 70+ | 51 | 40 | 7 |
Concern over the abortion issue is also not associated with age. Concern fluctuates across age groups but is not consistently higher among the young than it is among their elders. These results suggest it is unlikely that the abortion issue will be uniquely motivating for younger voters in the fall elections.
| Age | Very concerned | Less concerned | DK/Ref |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18-29 | 62 | 38 | 0 |
| 30-39 | 46 | 54 | 0 |
| 40-49 | 55 | 43 | 3 |
| 50-59 | 66 | 33 | 1 |
| 60-69 | 55 | 41 | 4 |
| 70+ | 64 | 32 | 4 |
Partisanship and concern about abortion policy
Democrats say they are more concerned about the abortion issue, followed by Republicans while independents express less concern about the issue.
| Party ID | Very concerned | Less concerned | DK/Ref |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 57 | 41 | 2 |
| Independent | 49 | 49 | 2 |
| Democrat | 73 | 26 | 1 |
While Democrats express more concern about abortion, they are less likely than Republicans to say they are very enthusiastic about voting in November.
| Party ID | Very enthusiastic | Less enthusiastic | DK/Ref |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 74 | 26 | 0 |
| Independent | 49 | 49 | 1 |
| Democrat | 60 | 39 | 1 |
Enthusiasm to vote by party and abortion policy preference
Enthusiasm to vote is highest among Republicans, and equally so for pro- and anti-abortion policy preferences. Among independents, those opposed to abortion are more enthusiastic than those supporting abortion. Among Democrats who are pro-abortion, enthusiasm is less than among Republicans. There are very few Democrats who are anti-abortion, but among this group enthusiasm is low, about the same as for pro-abortion independents.
| Party ID | Abortion policy | Very enthusiastic | Less enthusiastic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Legal all or most cases | 73 | 27 |
| Republican | Illegal all or most cases | 73 | 27 |
| Independent | Legal all or most cases | 45 | 53 |
| Independent | Illegal all or most cases | 57 | 43 |
| Democrat | Legal all or most cases | 61 | 38 |
| Democrat | Illegal all or most cases | 48 | 52 |
Conclusion
A week before the Supreme Court struck down Roe v Wade, Wisconsin Republicans were more motivated to vote than Democrats, and pro-abortion policy preference was not associated with greater enthusiasm to vote. Enthusiasm was higher among those saying abortion should be illegal in most cases while quite similar among those saying abortion should be legal in all or most cases, and for those saying it should be illegal in all cases.
The Court’s now official decision overturning Roe, and the subsequent political campaigns on the issue, may shift motivation and participation, but the leak of the draft of that opinion in May did not produce a measurable mobilization among those favoring abortion rights, contrary to some speculation.