Most of the country saw modest shifts in vote margin from 2016 to 2020. The Texas border stands out for the intensity and breadth of the pro-Republican shift. Miami is also attention getting, but here we focus on Texas.

It isn’t that the Texas border counties gave majorities to Trump. Most didn’t. But the swing in these counties, many with large Hispanic populations, was unexpected.

Democratic gains in urban and suburban counties were partially offset by GOP gains along the border.

The Texas border counties stand out nationally, not just in the state. This chart shows 2020 vote margin by 2016 margin, with the Texas border counties highlighted in red.

And I mentioned Miami earlier. It’s the big gray circle below the diagonal near the Texas counties.

For Texas to become a competitive state would be quite a thing. To do so, Democrats must consolidate gains and stop the loses. For Republicans, the prospect of balancing urban/suburban loss with border and western gains is a possible solution for continued hold on statewide offices.