A partisan divide has emerged since October
Opposition to data centers in Wisconsin rose dramatically from October to February, one of the most sudden changes in public opinion we’ve seen in 14 years of Marquette Law School polling. In October opinion of data centers was mildly opposed, with 55% who said the costs outweigh the benefits and 44% who said the benefits outweigh the costs. In February opposition jumped to 70% seeing costs as greater and only 29% seeing benefits as greater.
In October there was virtually no partisan divide on data centers, a rarity in the most competitive state in the union. By February Republicans had hardly changed their view of data centers, remaining mildly opposed, but opposition among independents and Democrats had soared.
Respondents were asked what they saw as the most important benefits and costs of data centers, choosing up to two each from five benefits and five costs. Among benefits, jobs for technical and other workers was most often cited as a benefit, followed by local tax revenues. Construction jobs ranked third and establishing a new industry in the state was fourth. The least cited benefit was developing artificial intelligence.
On the cost side, water use was most frequently mentioned, with over half choosing this, followed by those saying we should not develop artificial intelligence. The effect of data centers on the cost of electricity, and the potential for requiring new electric generating plants lagged in third and fourth place. The shift from agricultural to industrial land use was the least mentioned cost of data centers.
One substantial difference in views is shown by the fact that 22% saw no benefits at all from data centers while only 4% saw no costs.
Doubts about artificial intelligence play a role in opposition to data centers as the second most-cited cost, while developing AI in order to lead the world ranked last among perceived benefits.
Those who said the use of AI is moving too quickly are more opposed to data centers, while those who say AI is developing at about the right pace or too slowly see benefits outweighing costs by a small margin. Overall, 73% say AI is moving too quickly.
Concern about the cost of electricity in general is only modestly related to the balance of benefits and costs of data centers. Concern for electricity costs also ranked tied for last of 9 concerns covered in the poll.
There is only moderate variation in views of data centers across urban, suburban and rural areas of Wisconsin, with majority opposition in each of the three areas.
While a substantial majority say the costs outweigh the benefits of data centers, most admit they haven’t heard a lot about the issue. Just 20% say they have heard a lot about data centers, 62% have heard a little and 18% have heard nothing at all. The amount heard about data centers, however, is not related to views of costs and benefits. Seventy-four of those who heard a lot say the costs outweigh the benefits, and among those who have heard little or nothing 69% also say the costs outweigh the benefits.
Bottom line
Opposition to data centers has been fought in city or county councils and planning commissions in Wisconsin, not (yet) at the state level. Those local officials have faced large and vocal opposition to data centers and to the way development has been negotiated, often with non-disclosure agreements that lack transparency.
As the critics have been vocal, proponents of the value of data centers have been soft spoken if not silent. In the past, economic development debates in Wisconsin have often fallen along partisan lines with equally assertive arguments from both sides. In the case of data centers political champions have been far less visible than opponents. With the governor’s race looming this year, and a majority, if a small one, of Republicans opposed to data centers, it is unclear who will emerge as advocates for the centers. At the same time the large majority of Democrats opposed to data centers will make it difficult for any of the Democratic candidates for governor or the legislature to advocate for the benefits of these developments. So far, a handful of mayors have been the primary voices for the local benefits data centers can provide.
If opposition were based solely on local zoning or location or utility costs or tax payments, then alternative arrangements might be negotiated. As the data above show, some of these are important considerations for people and may yet lead to compromises on development. But opposition to the development of AI looms large on the cost side, and that is a much harder divide to bridge.