What Wisconsin Democrats Think

Extremely unified in opposition to Trump and his works

We often look at polls for the toplines, the balance of opinion across the full population. But it is important to understand the very substantial divisions in our politics that are masked by that single topline. Today I continue a series of posts on what partisans and independents in Wisconsin think. I’m doing them one at a time to stay focused on each party. We’ll come back with some comparisons in the final post. Today let’s look at the Democrats. (See the first post on the Republicans here.)

Democrats are intensely opposed to President Donald Trump and (almost) all of his policies. Literally no Democrats, zero percent, think tariffs help Wisconsin farmers. Three percent or less are favorable to MAGA, think Trump will reduce inflation, approve of Trump’s handling of his job, believe the Alex Pretti shooting was justified, view ICE favorably or approve of how ICE is enforcing immigration laws, or view the Republican party favorably.

Just slightly more, 6%, favor deporting immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally including long term residents with no criminal record. Ten percent think they are better off now than a year ago. And 10% think we are deporting mostly criminals.

In state affairs, 15% of Democrats think the benefits of data centers outweigh their cost, and 88% approve of how Gov. Tony Evers is handling his job.

The chart shows Democratic opinion on 23 topics covered in my Feb. 11-19, 2026 Marquette Law School Poll of Wisconsin registered voters.

There is a larger minority view among Democrats on school funding with 21% saying schools must live within their budgets rather than receive more state aid, and 25%, one in four Democrats, favor deporting immigrants in the country illegally (without mention of length of residence or non-criminal status.) Majorities mirror the school budget item with 79% favoring Evers’ 400 year veto and 78% satisfied with their local public schools. And 77% are favorable to the Democratic party.

The minority faction of the party passes 30% for approving of the (Republican controlled) legislature, favoring online sports betting, and saying it is more important to hold down property taxes than to increase K-12 funding. Of course majorities of the party take the opposite view on these topics but here there is considerably less unanimity than when Trump is involved.

The Wisconsin Supreme Court gets a 65% approval rating, with 15% lacking an opinion.

Finally, 46% say they are living comfortably, as opposed to just getting by or struggling.

Most important concerns

The top issue concern for Democrats is inflation and the cost of living, followed by health insurance. Close behind are gun violence, jobs and the economy and abortion policy. Topics of less concern are the cost of electricity, taxes in general, and property taxes specifically. The topic of least concern to Democrats is illegal immigration and border security.

While Democrats are incredibly united in opposition to national issues related to Trump and his policies, there is a bit less unity on state issues surrounding schools and property taxes. To be sure there are sizable majorities in favor of school funding but a fifth to a third of Democrats favor constraints on school budgets and prioritize holding down property taxes. And one in four favor deportations, except when asked if that includes those with no criminal record.

Democratic issue priorities stress inflation and health care but rank illegal immigration at the very bottom of concerns, with taxes only a little higher.

There are other issues not covered in this poll that could also become important in the fall elections, but will await new polling.

Next time: What Independents think.

Opposition to data centers surges in Wisconsin

A partisan divide has emerged since October

Opposition to data centers in Wisconsin rose dramatically from October to February, one of the most sudden changes in public opinion we’ve seen in 14 years of Marquette Law School polling. In October opinion of data centers was mildly opposed, with 55% who said the costs outweigh the benefits and 44% who said the benefits outweigh the costs. In February opposition jumped to 70% seeing costs as greater and only 29% seeing benefits as greater.

In October there was virtually no partisan divide on data centers, a rarity in the most competitive state in the union. By February Republicans had hardly changed their view of data centers, remaining mildly opposed, but opposition among independents and Democrats had soared.

Respondents were asked what they saw as the most important benefits and costs of data centers, choosing up to two each from five benefits and five costs. Among benefits, jobs for technical and other workers was most often cited as a benefit, followed by local tax revenues. Construction jobs ranked third and establishing a new industry in the state was fourth. The least cited benefit was developing artificial intelligence.

On the cost side, water use was most frequently mentioned, with over half choosing this, followed by those saying we should not develop artificial intelligence. The effect of data centers on the cost of electricity, and the potential for requiring new electric generating plants lagged in third and fourth place. The shift from agricultural to industrial land use was the least mentioned cost of data centers.

One substantial difference in views is shown by the fact that 22% saw no benefits at all from data centers while only 4% saw no costs.

Doubts about artificial intelligence play a role in opposition to data centers as the second most-cited cost, while developing AI in order to lead the world ranked last among perceived benefits.

Those who said the use of AI is moving too quickly are more opposed to data centers, while those who say AI is developing at about the right pace or too slowly see benefits outweighing costs by a small margin. Overall, 73% say AI is moving too quickly.

Concern about the cost of electricity in general is only modestly related to the balance of benefits and costs of data centers. Concern for electricity costs also ranked tied for last of 9 concerns covered in the poll.

There is only moderate variation in views of data centers across urban, suburban and rural areas of Wisconsin, with majority opposition in each of the three areas.

While a substantial majority say the costs outweigh the benefits of data centers, most admit they haven’t heard a lot about the issue. Just 20% say they have heard a lot about data centers, 62% have heard a little and 18% have heard nothing at all. The amount heard about data centers, however, is not related to views of costs and benefits. Seventy-four of those who heard a lot say the costs outweigh the benefits, and among those who have heard little or nothing 69% also say the costs outweigh the benefits.

Bottom line

Opposition to data centers has been fought in city or county councils and planning commissions in Wisconsin, not (yet) at the state level. Those local officials have faced large and vocal opposition to data centers and to the way development has been negotiated, often with non-disclosure agreements that lack transparency.

As the critics have been vocal, proponents of the value of data centers have been soft spoken if not silent. In the past, economic development debates in Wisconsin have often fallen along partisan lines with equally assertive arguments from both sides. In the case of data centers political champions have been far less visible than opponents. With the governor’s race looming this year, and a majority, if a small one, of Republicans opposed to data centers, it is unclear who will emerge as advocates for the centers. At the same time the large majority of Democrats opposed to data centers will make it difficult for any of the Democratic candidates for governor or the legislature to advocate for the benefits of these developments. So far, a handful of mayors have been the primary voices for the local benefits data centers can provide.

If opposition were based solely on local zoning or location or utility costs or tax payments, then alternative arrangements might be negotiated. As the data above show, some of these are important considerations for people and may yet lead to compromises on development. But opposition to the development of AI looms large on the cost side, and that is a much harder divide to bridge.

Trump and Wisconsin Republicans

First Choice for Nominee

Using Republicans and independents who lean Republicans, Trump gets 31% and DeSantis gets 30%, a surprisingly close race. Trump leads by considerably more in other states and in national polls. What’s going on in my June Wisconsin @MULawPoll?

One might ask if independents who lean Republican are distorting this. But no. Among “pure” Republicans, Trump gets 35% and DeSantis gets 34%. Among independents who lean Republican, there are more other and undecided choices but the margin is not much changed: Trump gets 23% and DeSantis 25%.

So the close first choice race is not because of including leaners: it is a 1 point Trump margin without leaners too. (Scroll right for full table)

GroupChris ChristieRon DeSantisLarry ElderNikki HaleyAsa HutchinsonMike PenceVivek RamaswamyTim ScottDonald TrumpHaven’t decided
All Rep+Leaners1300306353121
Rep1340105243518
Lean Rep1251617462327

Head-to-head second choice

DeSantis picks up a big margin in the head-to-head second choice question, DeSantis 57% to 41% for Trump. Who moves from the first choice?

Those who pick another named Republican candidate (other than DeSantis or Trump) break 74-25 for DeSantis on the 2nd choice. And the undecided on first choice break 65-28 for DeSantis. See Table 2.

Trump is a lot of Republican’s first choice, but barely a quarter switch to him as their 2nd choice.

1st choiceDonald TrumpRon DeSantisDon’t know
DeSantis1981
Trump9820
Other candidates25741
Undecided28657

Is this because Republicans have turned against Trump?

Despite getting just 31% of first choice votes, Wisconsin Republicans still like Trump. Of all Reps and leaners, Trump favorability is 68% and unfavorable is 30% with a tiny 2% who say they haven’t heard enough about him.

Favorability is a shade higher with pure Reps, 72%, and a good bit lower, though still net positive at 60%, among leaners. Those ratings are shown in Table 3 (a). In October 2022, Trump was 78% favorable among Reps and 62% favorable among leaners, so a little decline with both, but not massive change.

DeSantis favorabiity is shown in Table 3 (b). He is 1 point behind Trump overall, 2 points above Trump on favorable with pure Republicans, and 7 points below Trump among leaners, but with much more haven’t heard enough and less unfavorable.

So there may be a small recent decline in Trump’s favorable ratings with Reps and with leaners, it isn’t a lot compared to where he was in October 2022.

Table 3: Favorability by Rep and Lean Rep Party ID

GroupFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enough
All Rep+Leaners68302
Rep72253
Lean Rep60390

GroupFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enough
All Rep+Leaners671420
Rep741016
Lean Rep532126

Well, did they just not vote for him in 2020?

Maybe these are somehow less Trump supportive Reps than they should be.

Asked to recall their vote in 2020, 95% of Reps say they voted for Trump, as do 79% of the leaners. In our late October 2020 poll, 90% of Reps and 79% of leaners said they were voting for Trump. This is not a peculiarly anti-Trump sample of Republicans.

Table 4: 2020 vote recall by party id, and Oct. 2020 pre-election vote

GroupDonald TrumpJoe BidenSomeone else
All Rep+Leaners9055
Rep9541
Lean Rep79713

GroupDonald TrumpJoe BidenJo Jorgensen
All Rep+Leaners8673
Rep9061
Lean Rep7986

Maybe they just aren’t as into you as they once were

There is a clear long term change in GOP views of Trump in Wisconsin since 2020. While he retains a core of vigorous supporters, Republicans and leaners do not have as favorable a view of Trump as they did in 2020. Table 5 shows this trend since January of 2020 until June of 2023.

Poll datesFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enoughDon’t know
1/8-12/20831601
2/19-23/20871011
3/24-29/20841203
5/3-7/2088911
6/14-18/20811333
8/4-9/20831412
8/30-9/3/20801531
9/30-10/4/20851321
10/21-25/20881110
8/3-8/21751833
10/26-31/21722324
2/22-27/22702135
4/19-24/22682434
6/14-20/22751933
8/10-15/22712125
9/6-11/22722404
10/3-9/22702226
10/24-11/1/22721726
6/8-13/23683021

For completeness, Table 6 shows the trends for pure Republicans and for leaners.

Table 6: Trump favorability, Jan. 2020-June 2023, among Replicans and leaners separately

Poll datesFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enoughDon’t know
1/8-12/20871200
2/19-23/2091711
3/24-29/20881012
5/3-7/2092511
6/14-18/20841214
8/4-9/20851311
8/30-9/3/20841131
9/30-10/4/2090910
10/21-25/20891010
8/3-8/21831232
10/26-31/21771822
2/22-27/22801125
4/19-24/22731924
6/14-20/22811710
8/10-15/22771525
9/6-11/22791604
10/3-9/22781525
10/24-11/1/22781235
6/8-13/23722530
Poll datesFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enoughDon’t know
1/8-12/20762211
2/19-23/20781813
3/24-29/20781705
5/3-7/20811611
6/14-18/20761761
8/4-9/20781623
8/30-9/3/20732520
9/30-10/4/20741952
10/21-25/20841410
8/3-8/21603045
10/26-31/21603126
2/22-27/22533754
4/19-24/22583542
6/14-20/22622378
8/10-15/22613316
9/6-11/22573904
10/3-9/22543527
10/24-11/1/22622618
6/8-13/23603901

Vote for Biden? Oh, goodness no.

Our GOP respondents aren’t as into Trump as in the past, but crossing over to vote for Biden remains a bridge too far. That goes for both Trump and DeSantis when matched against Biden, though DeSantis does a bit better with leaners, in Table 7.

Table 7: 2024 vote by party strength

Party stengthDonald TrumpJoe BidenHaven’t decidedDon’t knowRefused
Rep935100
Lean Rep7812613

Party stengthRon DeSantisJoe BidenHaven’t decidedDon’t knowRefused
Rep942210
Lean Rep8712200

Conclusions

Wisconsin Republicans are less attached to Trump than in 2020, are considering alternatives or are undecided, but not quick to embrace Trump if he isn’t already their 1st choice. But for the general election, they remain strongly Republican regardless of the candidates, and quite unwilling to vote for Biden.