GOP candidates have struggled a bit to find positions on Russia and international affairs they can be consistent on and that GOP voters want
The shift from the Reagan party to today is striking, but we might consider the future in which the GOP is America first, isolationist.
This comment by @StuPolitics prompted me to share data from my @MULawPoll _National_ data on opinion concerning Ukraine aid and the US role in the world.
“It really is amazing how quickly the GOP position on foreign policy/int’l relations has flipped. It has gone from tough against the USSR to soft and squishy against Russia.” — @StuPolitics
On aid to Ukraine, the balance of opinion hasn’t moved much since Nov. The largest group, 40-45%, says we are giving about the right amount, some 30-35% say too much and just under 25% say not enough aid.
The partisan divide though is pretty strong but also stable. Reps most likely to say too much, Dems least and inds in the middle. Roughly half Reps and Rep leaners say we are giving too much aid to Ukraine
Note the Lean Reps are slightly more anti-aid than Reps. More on that below.
We’ve also asked @MULawPoll respondents about the US role in the world.
Most say it is better for the future of the country if we play an active role in the world, 55-60%, with 40-45% saying stay out of world affairs. A little tightening on this since Nov. 2022.
When we look at the “stay out of world affairs” by party ID, those independents who lean Rep and pure independents jump to the top of the chart as the most isolationist, at 58-64%
Reps are less so, though still at near 50%
And Lean Dems are about 40%, with Dems under 30%
Back to @StuPolitics comment, consider the international successes of nuclear arms reduction under Reagan, collapse of USSR under GHWBush and the seeming spread of democracy under Clinton.
The last 23 years have not had much to claim as big success stories for either party.
Those negative views of the US role among independents and leaners (esp Rep leaners) represent an opportunity for “isolationism” to grow, most likely in GOP but possibly with Dems too
Leadership can shape these views, exploit them, or follow the crowd. It ain’t the 1980s no more.
