Tag Archives: legislative races

Another GOP retirement in Wisconsin Senate

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Six of 12 Republican incumbents up in 2026 are now retiring

Wisconsin state Senator Andre Jacque (R – New Franken) became the 6th Republican to announce he will not seek reelection. There are 12 incumbent Republicans up for election this year, so half have now announced they will not seek reelection. There are 18 sitting GOP senators, so there will be at least 1/3 of the caucus new in 2027. 

Republicans currently hold an 18-15 majority in the Senate. Democrats need a net gain of two seats to take the majority for the first time since 2010.

Of the GOP retirements two are in quite competitive seats (the 5th & 21st)), both in districts Harris won in 2024, while 4 are in relatively safe Republican seats, based on recent elections for statewide office. A third competitive seat, the 17th, has an incumbent Republican, Howard Marklein, seeking reelection in a considerably changed district following redistricting in 2024.

Jacque’s 1st district is solidly Republican. The district includes Door county plus parts of counties to the south of the Door peninsula in north-eastern Wisconsin.

The recent voting in the district has been solidly Republican. with the southern part of the district quite red and the northern part of Door county blue.

The full set of Senate seats up, with retirements and splits between incumbent party and 2024 presidential result is shown in the table blow.

Wisconsin Assembly Rep. Kaufert (R-53rd) retires

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Creates open seat in one of the most competitive districts

Rep. Dean Kaufert, R-Neenah, announced his retirement from the 53rd district on April 27th. He is the 11th member of the Assembly, and the 8th Republican, to announce they will not seek reelection. Three Assembly Democrats are seeking other offices, two for state Senate and one for Governor. 

Kaufert is the only retiring Republican representative in a district Harris won in 2024. Kaufert won in 2024 by 364 votes, a 1.2 percentage point margin, while Harris won the district by 4.4 percentage points. Gov. Tony Evers carried it by 8.6 points in 2022 and Sen. Tammy Baldwin won it by 3.9 points that same year. (These past votes are calculated for the current district boundaries, following the 2024 redistricting.)

The district includes Neenah and Menasha, and part of Appleton, in northeastern Wisconsin.

The vote in the current 53rd district has been trending Democratic in recent years. From 2012 to 2016 Republicans won it in 2012 and 2014 governor races, and 2016 presidential and Senate races, though Obama and Baldwin won it in 2012. Since 2016 the district has voted Democratic in each of the major statewide races. Kaufert’s win in 2024 was an exceptional GOP victory. 

The top Assembly seats for majority control include the 53rd plus four other seats Republicans narrowly won in 2024, each of which Harris also won. The Assembly is currently 54R-45D. The most competitive Democratic held seat is the 94th which Rep. Steve Doyle won in 2024 by 217 votes, 0.6 percentage points, while Trump carried the district by 2.1 points. The other three potentially competitive Democratic held seats were relatively close for both assembly and president but were Harris victories as well as Democratic Assembly wins. 

As candidates are now circulating nomination papers for access to the ballot, the time for retirement announcements would seem to be drawing to a close. So far, the announced retirements have come in less competitive districts, with the exception of Kaufert’s decision today. Thus, the competition for the majority depends more on close seats with incumbent Republicans seeking reelection in Harris districts, plus the one split decision in a Democratic seat.