Dobbs sharply damaged the Court’s standing. New erosion since Jan. 2025.
The Supreme Court has been at the center of disputes over President Donald Trump’s executive orders and other actions over the last 14 months, most recently hearing oral arguments over birthright citizenship and the Fourteenth Amendment on April 1. Trump has bitterly complained about the justices recently.
Public opinion of the Court has varied sharply since 2020 when my Marquette Law School Poll began regularly polling on approval of the Court. Overall approval of the Court has ranged from a high of 66% in September 2020 to a low of 38% in July 2022. Decisions related to abortion seem to have driven the sharp declines in the fall of 2021 through summer of 2022.
On Sept. 1, 2021 the Court allowed Texas’ “heartbeat” bill to take effect which bans abortion once cardiac activity is detected, typically after about 6 weeks of gestation. This was followed by a -11 point drop in approval in the late September poll. Approval subsequently rose modestly but then took a sharp drop when the Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade was leaked to Politico on May 2, 2022, falling -10 points in the following May poll. After the Dobbs decision was officially handed down on June 24 approval fell an additional -6 points to the low of 38%.
Approval only slightly improved in 2023 and the first half of 2024, after which it rose to over 50% in the first half of 2025, before falling off in the second half of 2025 to the current 44% as of Jan. 2026.
These shifting opinions are shown in the chart.
Partisan divisions in views of the Court are substantial. As of Jan. 2026 78% of Republicans approve of the job the Court as doing, while 26% of independents and just 17% of Democrats approve.
This large split wasn’t the case in 2020 or the summer of 2021. In those polls majorities of Republicans, independents and Democrats all approved of the Court. In Sept. 2019 80% of Republicans approved as did 64% of independents and 57% of Democrats. In July 2021 it was 57% for Republicans, 61% for independents and 59% for Democrats. That was impressive lack of partisanship. It didn’t last.
After the Court allowed Texas to move forward with it’s ban on abortions after six weeks of gestation GOP approval hardly moved but independent approval dropped -13 percentage points and approval among Democrats fell -17 points. After a partial recovery, approval again fell sharply in May 2022 following the Dobbs leak, declining -13 points among independents and -24 points among Democrats. Then another drop for Democrats after the Dobbs decision was officially announced, -13 points.
The net change from July 2021 to July 2022 was a gain of 14 points among Republicans and a decline of -23 points among independents and drop of -31 points among Democrats.
During the second half of 2022 through the first half of 2024 approval among all partisans remained fairly stable between about 60% and 70% among Republicans, between about 30% and 40% among independents and between about 25% and 35% among Democrats. There were modest gains in late 2024 that peaked in early 2025 but since then approval has steadily declined among independents and Democrats while holding fairly steady among Republicans. The partisan gap has widened over the first year of Trump’s second term.
An open question is how the Court’s current docket may affect these opinions. As of the January survey the Court had ruled against the Trump administration in two fairly visible cases concerning due process in deportation proceedings and the deployment of National Guard troops in Chicago, though also ruling for the administration on many procedural decisions. Since the January poll the Court ruled against Trump’s imposition of tariffs, and has heard but not decided a case on birthright citizenship. Stay tuned for new polls as we track response to those decisions.
In recent months about 56% say they think the Court has been going out of it’s way to avoid ruling against Trump, with 44% saying the Court is not avoiding such a ruling. Those perceptions have remained quite stable in polls of Sept. and Nov. 2025 and Jan. 2026. Opinion has likewise been stable within partisan camps, though with a considerable party split. Among Republicans in January 32% think the Court is avoiding ruling against Trump, but 61% of independents and 78% of Democrats think it is avoiding ruling against the president. We will see in the April poll if the tariff decision shifted this perception in any way.
On one measure I have found very substantial majority agreement, and agreement across party lines. The Court continues to enjoy great legitimacy if it rules against the president. The question asks
If the Supreme Court rules against the president in a case, does the president have the power to ignore that ruling, or is the president required to do as the ruling says?
We’ve asked this since 2019, though not in each survey. In Jan. 2026 82% say the president must obey a Supreme Court decision. This support has been stable and across the parties since 2019. It is one demonstration that approval or disapproval of the Court doesn’t have much relationship with belief in the authority of the Court’s decisions.
President Trump’s criticism of judges, and more recently of the Supreme Court, have not yet driven down Republican approval of the Court. After the tariff decision his complaints became more severe and more frequent. If Republicans follow Trump’s lead and become less positive to the Court overall approval may decline further, since their nearly 80% approval rate is helping keep overall approval in the mid-40s. Conversely, it is possible Democratic support might rise if the Court rules against Trump in more major cases this spring. By the end of June we will know.