Tag Archives: Marquette Law School Poll

Boys and girls! Young and old! And Donald Trump

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All but the olds soured on Trump in 2025

Much has been made about Donald Trump’s gains in 2024, especially among young men and Hispanic voters. That is mostly true. Today’s focus is how his appeal had waxed and waned among young and old, men and women.

I use net favorability to Trump because it applies when he was out of office as well as since he returned for his second term. Net favorability is generally pretty close to net approval. In my April Marquette Law School Poll national survey, Trump’s net favorability was -22 percentage points and his net approval was -21 points.

Trump’s net favorability was negative with all combinations of sex and age in 2021 and 2022 polls. There were at most slight gains during this period. But in 2023 his net ratings rose with all groups except for older women. In 2024 men of all ages further increased their net ratings, becoming net positive with men 45-59 and 60+, and momentarily with men 30-44. The youngest men became more favorable but peaked short of becoming net positive.

Among women, the increased favorability of 2023 continued into at least part of 2024, with older women’s favorable ratings increasing for the first time in 2024. Unlike the men, no age group of women reached net positive territory despite the general improved views of Trump.

In 2025 and 2026, however, all groups except for men and women 60 or older, who have remained stable, turned sour on Trump. The timing of the turn down varies a bit, with young women declining sooner than others, but for both sexes and all age groups under 60, 2025-26 has seen a steady downward trend in net favorability.

As of April, all gender and age groups are net negative to Trump except for men age 60 and older. Women of each age group are more negative than men of the same age, a pattern seen throughout the last five years.

For all the chatter about young men under 30 moving to Trump in 2024, the decline in net favorability has been steepest with this group in 2025. The emphasis on changing views of young men was correct in saying that they had rising support for Trump in 2024 and he gained votes in this group. But that is also a bit misleading in suggesting that young men became strong supporters of Trump. In fact they never reached net positive favorability. In Pew’s validated voter surveys Trump lost men under 30 by 5 points in 2024, an improvement over losing this group by 14 points in 2020. Among women under 30, Trump lost by 29 points in 2024 and by 35 points in 2020. Net gains of 9 points with young men and 6 points among young women are notable, but fall short of a major realignment of preferences. Exit polls in 2024 show young men voting for Trump by 1 point, 49% to 48%, and young women voting against Trump, 38%-61%. I think Pew’s data are more reliable for this analysis, but at the most Trump barely won young men, doing significantly less well than with older men in the exit poll. Pew data are here and the exit data are at the very bottom here.

The takeaway is that young men were not the key to Trump’s victory in 2024, though he improved with them over 2020. However, the fortunes of the GOP in 2026 have far more to do with Trump’s falling favor among all age groups under 60 than with any single sex or age group. Declining favorability is widespread across the population, and isolated strength is not enough to power a midterm victory. How many seats change in the House and Senate rests on the limited number of closely contested seats, before and after recent redistricting, but also depends on how unpopular the sitting president is. At this point, he is considerably less popular than at the start of his second term, including among young men.

Cease-fire good; war bad

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New MULawPoll national survey finds widespread dissatisfaction with the Iran war

My new Marquette Law School Poll national survey is out this morning. We were in the field April 8-16, starting the day after the cease-fire agreement with Iran went into place.  In today’s post I focus on the results related to the war. Tomorrow I’ll turn to the economy and how President Donald Trump is handling various aspects of his job. 

TLDR? Cease-fire popular, war not. Haven’t accomplished goals, not sufficient reasons for the war. Trump approval on war: 32%. And among Republicans 65% approve of war, that’s 13 points below Republican approval of how he handles his job in general, itself the lowest among Republicans in the second term.

The Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds 75% approve of the cease-fire in the U.S.-Iran war and 24% disapprove. At the same time, only 21% say the U.S. has achieved its goals in the war, while 78% say the goals have not been met. The public overall does not think that there were sufficient reasons for the war, with 63% saying there were not sufficient reasons and 36% saying there were.

There is bipartisan approval of the cease-fire that went into effect on April 7. Among Republicans, 82% approve of the cease-fire, as do 71% of Democrats and 67% of independents. There is also a bipartisan sentiment, with some partisan variation, that the goals of the war have not been achieved. Among Republicans, 64% say the United States has failed to achieve its goals, compared to 94% of Democrats and 78% of independents.

Bipartisanship breaks down on the question of the justification for the war. Seventy-one percent of Republicans say there was sufficient reason for the war, while 94% of Democrats say there was not. Among independents, 75% say there was not enough reason to go to war.

Thirty-two percent approve of the way President Donald Trump has handled the war, while 68% disapprove. Among Republicans, approval for Trump’s handling of the war stands at 65%, which is notably less than the 78% of Republicans who approve of Trump’s handling of his job as president in general. Among independents, 82% disapprove of Trump’s handling of the war, along with 96% of Democrats.

The survey was conducted April 8-16, 2026, interviewing 982 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-3.4 percentage points. For registered voters, the sample size was 870, with a margin of error of +/-3.6. For likely voters, the sample size was 576, with a margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points.

Feelings toward Iran are quite negative, with 12% having a favorable opinion, 73% holding unfavorable views, and 14% saying they haven’t heard enough to say. The U.S. partner in the war, Israel, is seen favorably by 33% and unfavorably by 54%, with 14% who say they haven’t heard enough. Views of Israel have turned more negative over the past year. In March 2025, 43% held favorable views of Israel, compared to 43% unfavorable, with 14% lacking an opinion.

Trump threatened to bomb bridges and power plants across Iran in the days before the cease-fire went into effect. These are seen as legitimate military targets by 38% of respondents, while 62% say they are primarily civilian infrastructure that should not be attacked. Sixty-six percent of Republicans view these as legitimate military targets, while 34% disagree. Among independents, 70% say these are civilian locations and should not be attacked, as do 88% of Democrats.

The Iran war comes after the United States has destroyed dozens of alleged drug-running boats in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific, sent military forces into Venezuela to seize President Nicolás Maduro in January, and threatened to take control of Greenland. Respondents were asked whether they support or oppose Trump’s use of the military to force change in other countries.

  • Thirty-two percent support this use of the military, while 68% are opposed. 
  • As with approval of Trump’s handling of the Iran war, Republicans divide, though not evenly, with 64% in support of forcing change in other countries and 36% opposed. 
  • Eighty-three percent of independents and 94% of Democrats are opposed to such use of military force.
  • In this poll, 68% of Republicans are favorable to MAGA and 30% are not favorable to the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement. Among Republicans favorable to the MAGA movement, 78% support using the military to force countries to change, while among Republicans who are not favorable to MAGA, 34% support this use of the military. 

The public does not see the United States as a force for stability in the world. While 39% say the U.S. is a force for stability, 60% say it is causing instability. Here, too, there is a partisan divide, with 73% of Republicans who say the U.S. is a stabilizing force, while 72% of independents and 90% of Democrats say it is causing instability.

A majority, 57%, say it is better for the future of the country to take an active part in world affairs, while 43% say it is better to stay out of world affairs. Support for an active role peaked in March 2025 when 64% favored an active role in the world—the highest in 18 Marquette Law School Poll national surveys since 2022.

Partisan views of the U.S. role in the world have shifted during Trump’s second term. In February 2025, 55% of Republicans said the U.S. should be active in the world. That rose to 68% in this poll. Independents are most reluctant to support an international role, with support among independents declining from 54% in early 2025 to 32% this month. Democrats have consistently been most supportive of an active role across the previous 17 polls since 2022, but have shifted substantially, especially since the Iran war began. In February 2025, 71% favored an active role; that fell to 64% in January 2026 and to 54% in April.

Attention to news about the Iran war

The public has paid substantial attention to the Iran war. In April, 76% had read or heard a lot about the war, 21% had heard a little, and 3% had heard nothing at all. That is more attention than was paid to the U.S. airstrikes on Iran nuclear facilities in June 2025, when 63% said they had heard a lot in July.

The only comparably high levels of attention in polling during Trump’s second term have been to the imposition of tariffs in April 2025, when 81% said they had heard a lot, and the fatal shooting of Renee Good by an ICE officer in Minneapolis in January, when 76% had heard a lot. Democrats and Republicans are equally likely to say they heard a lot about the current Iran war, 82% and 80% respectively, while independents have paid considerably less attention, with 51% hearing a lot.

Attention is also relatively high concerning Iran limiting oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Sixty percent say have heard a lot about this, 27% have heard a little, and 13% have heard nothing at all. As with the war in general, Democrats and Republicans are equally attentive, while independents are much less so.

Significantly fewer Americans paid close attention to the rescue of two U.S. airmen whose airplane was shot down over Iran, leading to a large number of ground troops being dispatch inside Iran to rescue the second airman. About this, only 45% said they had heard a lot, 34% heard a little, and 21% heard nothing. While 58% of Republicans heard a lot about this, 39% of Democrats did, and just 24% of independents.

The toplines and crosstabs for the poll are on the poll website here.  Tomorrow I’ll run down views of the economy and of Trump’s handling of various issues.

Opinion of the Iran War in Wisconsin

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Most groups oppose the war; Trump loyalists approve

Today I take a look at opinion of the Iran war in the swing state of Wisconsin. As I wrote this, President Trump announced a two-week cease-fire with Iran. And the liberal candidate for the Wisconsin Supreme Court won by 20 points (with 95% of the vote in), double the margin in each of the three previous Court races. While I doubt the Court vote was directly driven by opinion of the war, opposition to the war, and to Trump, almost certainly played a role in motivating Democrats to turn out.

In my March 11-18 Marquette Law School poll of Wisconsin registered voters we asked if the respondent approved or disapproved of the war with Iran. Overall, 39% approved of the war and 61% disapproved.

Today I want to show how a number of demographic and attitudinal groups line up on the war. There are some groups that are strongly supportive of the war. These groups are also mostly part of the core Trump base. They include Republicans who are also favorable to MAGA, those who describe themselves as very conservative, Trump 2024 voters, and Republicans in general. Even among these and other Trump base groups there is variation in support for the war. For example 88% of MAGA Republicans approve of the war. That slips to 75% among all Republicans and to 61% among born-again protestants.

At the opposite end of high opposition to the war, almost all Democratic groups are over 95% opposed to the war, as are both somewhat liberal and very liberal groups.

There is more interesting variation within some categories. White, males, without a college degree are fairly supportive of the war, 56% approve. But their white, female, non-college counterparts are solidly opposed, 61%, which is similar to white, males with a college degree, 64%, while white, female college grads are still more opposed, 68%. Given the support for Trump from white, non-college women in 2024 (51% for Trump in the MULawPoll, 53% in the Wisconsin exit poll) this is notable slippage among an important swing group.

The war evenly divides rural Wisconsin voters while those in the suburbs are solidly opposed, 66%, and those in urban areas more opposed, 70%. Trump won rural voters in Wisconsin by 23 percentage points and by 2 points in the suburbs, losing urban voters by 21 points.

There is a considerable split by age with those 45 and older only slightly opposed to the war while those under 45 are strongly opposed.

By ideology the expected liberal and conservative alignments are strong, but among moderates, 75% disapprove of the war, as do 73% of independents.

The chart shows these groups and more. It provides a review of many crosstabs in a single figure. At the top are those groups that most approve of the war with decreasing approval as one reads down the rows.

The cease-fire, assuming it holds, will allow the end of active bombing and a resumption of oil shipments, perhaps reducing the oil shock of the past five and a half weeks. It is a long 210 days to election day as I write this. Will memories of an unpopular war and its economic price tag linger for some seven months, or will we have moved on to new topics by the fall? At this moment, there are few groups of Wisconsin voters who can be said to have thought the war a good idea.

Public approval of the Supreme Court

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Dobbs sharply damaged the Court’s standing. New erosion since Jan. 2025.

The Supreme Court has been at the center of disputes over President Donald Trump’s executive orders and other actions over the last 14 months, most recently hearing oral arguments over birthright citizenship and the Fourteenth Amendment on April 1. Trump has bitterly complained about the justices recently.

Public opinion of the Court has varied sharply since 2020 when my Marquette Law School Poll began regularly polling on approval of the Court. Overall approval of the Court has ranged from a high of 66% in September 2020 to a low of 38% in July 2022. Decisions related to abortion seem to have driven the sharp declines in the fall of 2021 through summer of 2022.

On Sept. 1, 2021 the Court allowed Texas’ “heartbeat” bill to take effect which bans abortion once cardiac activity is detected, typically after about 6 weeks of gestation. This was followed by a -11 point drop in approval in the late September poll. Approval subsequently rose modestly but then took a sharp drop when the Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade was leaked to Politico on May 2, 2022, falling -10 points in the following May poll. After the Dobbs decision was officially handed down on June 24 approval fell an additional -6 points to the low of 38%.

Approval only slightly improved in 2023 and the first half of 2024, after which it rose to over 50% in the first half of 2025, before falling off in the second half of 2025 to the current 44% as of Jan. 2026.

These shifting opinions are shown in the chart.

Partisan divisions in views of the Court are substantial. As of Jan. 2026 78% of Republicans approve of the job the Court as doing, while 26% of independents and just 17% of Democrats approve.

This large split wasn’t the case in 2020 or the summer of 2021. In those polls majorities of Republicans, independents and Democrats all approved of the Court. In Sept. 2019 80% of Republicans approved as did 64% of independents and 57% of Democrats. In July 2021 it was 57% for Republicans, 61% for independents and 59% for Democrats. That was impressive lack of partisanship. It didn’t last.

After the Court allowed Texas to move forward with it’s ban on abortions after six weeks of gestation GOP approval hardly moved but independent approval dropped -13 percentage points and approval among Democrats fell -17 points. After a partial recovery, approval again fell sharply in May 2022 following the Dobbs leak, declining -13 points among independents and -24 points among Democrats. Then another drop for Democrats after the Dobbs decision was officially announced, -13 points.

The net change from July 2021 to July 2022 was a gain of 14 points among Republicans and a decline of -23 points among independents and drop of -31 points among Democrats.

During the second half of 2022 through the first half of 2024 approval among all partisans remained fairly stable between about 60% and 70% among Republicans, between about 30% and 40% among independents and between about 25% and 35% among Democrats. There were modest gains in late 2024 that peaked in early 2025 but since then approval has steadily declined among independents and Democrats while holding fairly steady among Republicans. The partisan gap has widened over the first year of Trump’s second term.

An open question is how the Court’s current docket may affect these opinions. As of the January survey the Court had ruled against the Trump administration in two fairly visible cases concerning due process in deportation proceedings and the deployment of National Guard troops in Chicago, though also ruling for the administration on many procedural decisions. Since the January poll the Court ruled against Trump’s imposition of tariffs, and has heard but not decided a case on birthright citizenship. Stay tuned for new polls as we track response to those decisions.

In recent months about 56% say they think the Court has been going out of it’s way to avoid ruling against Trump, with 44% saying the Court is not avoiding such a ruling. Those perceptions have remained quite stable in polls of Sept. and Nov. 2025 and Jan. 2026. Opinion has likewise been stable within partisan camps, though with a considerable party split. Among Republicans in January 32% think the Court is avoiding ruling against Trump, but 61% of independents and 78% of Democrats think it is avoiding ruling against the president. We will see in the April poll if the tariff decision shifted this perception in any way.

On one measure I have found very substantial majority agreement, and agreement across party lines. The Court continues to enjoy great legitimacy if it rules against the president. The question asks

If the Supreme Court rules against the president in a case, does the president have the power to ignore that ruling, or is the president required to do as the ruling says?

We’ve asked this since 2019, though not in each survey. In Jan. 2026 82% say the president must obey a Supreme Court decision. This support has been stable and across the parties since 2019. It is one demonstration that approval or disapproval of the Court doesn’t have much relationship with belief in the authority of the Court’s decisions.

President Trump’s criticism of judges, and more recently of the Supreme Court, have not yet driven down Republican approval of the Court. After the tariff decision his complaints became more severe and more frequent. If Republicans follow Trump’s lead and become less positive to the Court overall approval may decline further, since their nearly 80% approval rate is helping keep overall approval in the mid-40s. Conversely, it is possible Democratic support might rise if the Court rules against Trump in more major cases this spring. By the end of June we will know.

What Wisconsin Independents Think

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Dislike Republicans, Democrats and Donald Trump

We often look at polls for the toplines, the balance of opinion across the full population. But it is important to understand the very substantial divisions in our politics that are masked by that single topline. Today I continue a series of posts on what partisans and independents in Wisconsin think. I’m doing them one at a time to stay focused on each party. We’ll come back with some comparisons in the final post. Today let’s look at the independents. (See the first post on the Republicans here, and the post on the Democrats here.

The first thing that jumps out about the opinions of independents is that they are much less lopsided than either Republicans or Democrats. For the partisans a number of opinions were held by over 80% of the party, but for independents only a handful approach that level of consensus.

The one item where independents are nearly unanimous is whether tariffs help Wisconsin farmers. Only 5% think the do.

Independents are united in not liking the parties and related groups. Only 17% are favorable to the Democratic party and 18% are favorable to the Republican party.

Opinions related to ICE are quite negative, with 19% favorable to ICE, and 24% who approve of how ICE is enforcing immigration laws. Twenty-two percent say the shooting of Alex Pretti was justified.

President Donald Trump gets a 23% approval rating from independents and MAGA is viewed favorably by 22%. Twenty-four percent think Trump’s policies will reduce inflation and 25% say they are better off than a year ago. Forty-one percent say they are living comfortably rather than just getting by or struggling.

The chart shows independent opinion on 23 topics covered in my Feb. 11-19, 2026 Marquette Law School Poll of Wisconsin registered voters.

On policies, independents are skeptical of data centers, with 24% saying their benefits outweigh the costs. Online sports betting is favored by 25%.

On immigration issues one-in-four, 25%, favor deporting immigrants in the U.S. illegally including long term residents with no criminal record, though 59% favor deporting those in the country illegally when the question doesn’t mention length of residence or criminal records. Forty-five percent think the U.S. is mostly deporting immigrants who have criminal records.

A number of school related issues are more evenly divided among independents. Thirty-nine percent say schools must live within their budgets rather than receive more state aid and opinion is evenly divided on Evers’ 400-year veto which requires annual increases in per-pupil expenditures. A majority, 55%, say they are more concerned with holding down property taxes rather than increasing school spending, though 58% are satisfied with the job their local public schools are doing.

Thirty-seven percent approve of the job the legislature is doing and 46% approve of how Evers is handling his job as governor. Fifty-one percent approve of how the Wisconsin Supreme Court is doing its job.

Most important concerns

The top issue concern for independents is health insurance, closely followed by inflation and the cost of living. A bit less concern is expressed for taxes in general and for electricity costs, followed by gun violence.

Independents are somewhat less concerned about jobs and the economy, and abortion policy. While taxes ranked third in concern at 51%, property taxes specifically ranked next to last at 33%. And immigration and border security ranked last, with just 22% of independents saying they were very concerned about this.

Independents are more like Democrats in ranking health insurance and inflation as their top two issues. Democrats rank inflation first and then health insurance. And independents differ from Republican issue priorities by putting property taxes and immigration at the bottom of their concerns, while Republicans rank immigration first and property taxes second.

While partisans are extremely united on a number of issues, independents are more varied in their views, meaning that for virtually all issues there is at least a significant minority view on every issue for independents while the minority views among partisans are often much smaller, with a more unified majority opinion.

There are other issues not covered in this poll that could also become important in the fall elections, but will await new polling.

Next time: Comparing partisan and independent opinions.

What Wisconsin Democrats Think

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Extremely unified in opposition to Trump and his works

We often look at polls for the toplines, the balance of opinion across the full population. But it is important to understand the very substantial divisions in our politics that are masked by that single topline. Today I continue a series of posts on what partisans and independents in Wisconsin think. I’m doing them one at a time to stay focused on each party. We’ll come back with some comparisons in the final post. Today let’s look at the Democrats. (See the first post on the Republicans here.)

Democrats are intensely opposed to President Donald Trump and (almost) all of his policies. Literally no Democrats, zero percent, think tariffs help Wisconsin farmers. Three percent or less are favorable to MAGA, think Trump will reduce inflation, approve of Trump’s handling of his job, believe the Alex Pretti shooting was justified, view ICE favorably or approve of how ICE is enforcing immigration laws, or view the Republican party favorably.

Just slightly more, 6%, favor deporting immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally including long term residents with no criminal record. Ten percent think they are better off now than a year ago. And 10% think we are deporting mostly criminals.

In state affairs, 15% of Democrats think the benefits of data centers outweigh their cost, and 88% approve of how Gov. Tony Evers is handling his job.

The chart shows Democratic opinion on 23 topics covered in my Feb. 11-19, 2026 Marquette Law School Poll of Wisconsin registered voters.

There is a larger minority view among Democrats on school funding with 21% saying schools must live within their budgets rather than receive more state aid, and 25%, one in four Democrats, favor deporting immigrants in the country illegally (without mention of length of residence or non-criminal status.) Majorities mirror the school budget item with 79% favoring Evers’ 400 year veto and 78% satisfied with their local public schools. And 77% are favorable to the Democratic party.

The minority faction of the party passes 30% for approving of the (Republican controlled) legislature, favoring online sports betting, and saying it is more important to hold down property taxes than to increase K-12 funding. Of course majorities of the party take the opposite view on these topics but here there is considerably less unanimity than when Trump is involved.

The Wisconsin Supreme Court gets a 65% approval rating, with 15% lacking an opinion.

Finally, 46% say they are living comfortably, as opposed to just getting by or struggling.

Most important concerns

The top issue concern for Democrats is inflation and the cost of living, followed by health insurance. Close behind are gun violence, jobs and the economy and abortion policy. Topics of less concern are the cost of electricity, taxes in general, and property taxes specifically. The topic of least concern to Democrats is illegal immigration and border security.

While Democrats are incredibly united in opposition to national issues related to Trump and his policies, there is a bit less unity on state issues surrounding schools and property taxes. To be sure there are sizable majorities in favor of school funding but a fifth to a third of Democrats favor constraints on school budgets and prioritize holding down property taxes. And one in four favor deportations, except when asked if that includes those with no criminal record.

Democratic issue priorities stress inflation and health care but rank illegal immigration at the very bottom of concerns, with taxes only a little higher.

There are other issues not covered in this poll that could also become important in the fall elections, but will await new polling.

Next time: What Independents think.

What Wisconsin Republicans Think

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United on deportations, support for Trump, property taxes

We often look at polls for the toplines, the balance of opinion across the full population. But it is important to understand the very substantial divisions in our politics that are masked by that single topline. Today I start a series of posts on what partisans and independents in Wisconsin think. I’m doing them one at a time to stay focused on each party. We’ll come back with some comparisons in the final post. Today let’s start with the Republicans.

Republicans in Wisconsin are most united in support of deporting immigrants in the U.S. illegally, reducing property taxes, supporting President Donald Trump and approving of the way ICE is going about enforcing immigration laws. Between 87% an 95% of Republicans embrace these four topics.

Republicans are also united in disliking the Democratic party, Gov. Tony Evers and his 400-year school funding veto.

The chart shows Republican opinion on 23 topics covered in my Feb. 11-19, 2026 Marquette Law School Poll of Wisconsin registered voters.

The GOP is almost as united on believing that most deportees have criminal records, having a favorable view of ICE, being favorable to the Republican party (though less so than to Trump), and believing that public schools must live within their budgets rather than receive more state aid. Each of these opinions are embraced by 80%-83% of Republicans.

Solid majorities say that the shooting of Alex Pretti in Minneapolis was justified, that immigrants in the U.S. illegally should be deported even if they have been here a long time and have no criminal record and that Trump’s policies will decrease inflation.

Similar majorities oppose online sports betting, and disapprove of the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Only 35% think tariffs are helping Wisconsin farmers, though a similar number think tariffs have no effect. On this topic opinion is less solid than it appears.

Then there is a set of issues that are less consensual with only small majorities: 57% say they are living comfortably and 55% say they are better off than a year ago; 53% approve of the job the legislature is doing and 51% are satisfied with their local public school. And 43% think the benefits of data centers outweigh their costs.

Simplifying, the GOP backs Trump and his policies (with some doubts on tariff effects) and wants to rein in property taxes and school spending. And they don’t care for Democrats or Tony Evers (no surprise there.)

Most important concerns

The priorities Republican have across issues largely mirror the unifying issues above. The top issue concern is illegal immigration and border security followed by property taxes. Those are followed by inflation and the cost of living and taxes more generally.

Further down the concerns, with less than 50% saying they are very concerned, are health insurance and the cost of electricity. Still further down are abortion policy and jobs and the economy. Ranked last is concern over gun violence.

The Wisconsin GOP is strongly united on issues of national politics centered on President Trump, and in state politics concerning property taxes and school funding. Also in opposition to Democrats.

There is less unity on new issues like data centers and online sports betting. And just over half say they are getting along well financially or better than before while there is some significant concern with inflation and the effect of tariffs.

There are other issues not covered in this poll that could also become important in the fall elections, but will await new polling.

Next time: What Democrats think.

Public opinion favors Supreme Court decision striking down Trump tariffs

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In Jan. 63% said Court should rule against Trump, including 33% of Republicans

On Feb. 20 the United State Supreme Court ruled against President Trump’s authority to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977. The case is Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump.

Public views of the case have been consistently in favor of upholding limits on the tariff authority since the Marquette Law School national poll first asked about this case in September. The table shows opinion over three national surveys.

The partisan divide on the tariff case is somewhat less stark than on many issues, with a significant minority of Republicans opposing the president’s position. A third of Republicans in the January poll wanted the Court to strike down the tariffs, an increase from 26% in November. More than two-thirds of independents favored overturning Trump’s use of tariffs, as did an overwhelming 92% of Democrats.

Approval of Trump’s handling of tariffs has consistently been below his overall approval rating in Marquette Law School national polls, with approval on tariffs below 40% in each of five polls since May 2025. In January, 26% of Republicans disapproved of Trump’s handling of tariffs, as did 71% of independents and 95% of Democrats.

A majority of the public, 56% say that tariffs hurt the U.S. economy, while 30% think they help the economy and 14% say tariffs don’t make much difference. Views of the effect of tariffs are related to opinion of how the Court should rule, as shown in the table below. Those who think tariffs help the economy are in favor of overturning the limits on the president’s authority, 77%, though even among this group more than one-in-five think the president’s authority should be limited, 23%. Among those who say tariffs harm the economy, 89% think the Court should limit presidential authority. Opinion is evenly divided among those who say tariffs don’t make much difference.

The Court and the President

A large majority of adults believe that the president must obey a Supreme Court decision, 82% with 17% who say the president can ignore a decision with which he disagrees. These views have been quite stable in 10 Marquette polls since 2019, never dipping below 76% saying the president must obey the Court, and not below 83% since Jan. 2025.

This belief in the authority of the Court is not a partisan matter. Among Republicans 76% say the president must obey the Court, as do 79% of independents and 90% of Democrats.

In January, a majority, 57% said the Court was going out of it’s way to avoid ruling against Trump, while 43% said the Court was not doing so. Among Republicans 34% thought the Court was avoiding ruling against Trump, as did 59% of independents and 78% of Democrats.

Approval of the Supreme Court

Approval of the U.S. Supreme Court has fallen since September, from 50% to 44% in January. Approval fell sharply in 2022 following the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision which overturned abortion rights established in Roe v. Wade. Net approval, the percentage approval minus disapproval, remained negative throughout the remainder of 2022 and through 2024. In January 2025 net approval moved up into positive territory before turning down in July. The table shows approval of the Court since September 2020.

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted Jan. 21-28, 2026, interviewing 1003 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-3.4 percentage points.

Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available at https://law.marquette.edu/poll/category/results-and-data/

ICE, Renee Good shooting, deportations and Trump approval

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Plus party images, most important issues in new MULawPoll national survey

On Feb. 4 and 5 we released my latest Marquette Law School Poll national survey. The link to the full release, toplines, crosstabs and methodology are at the bottom of this post.

I’ll be posting a series of deeper dives on these results over the next week, each more narrowly focused but with more detail than the release is able to get into, so stay tuned. A quick look for now.

For new listeners, our national polls are released over two days. The first focuses on political topics while the second is devoted to topics related to the U.S. Supreme Court. (Thanks to SCOTUSblog’s newsletter for headlining our Court poll this morning.) 

This poll was in the field Jan. 21-28, 2026, interviewing 1003 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-3.4 percentage points. The poll was conducted after the killing of Renee Good. About 2/3rds of the interviews were completed before the killing of Alex Pretti, with 1/3rd after. Therefore, this poll reflects reaction to the Good shooting but does not fully reflect opinion following the Pretti shooting.

In headlines, we find 60% disapprove of the way ICE is handling immigration enforcement, 40% approve. Sixty-two percent say the shooting of Good was not justified, and 37% say it was justified. Of seven recent news events, attention to the Good shooting was the most followed, with 76% saying they had read or heard a lot about it. 

On the other hand, support for deportations is virtually unchanged. We ask 2 questions, each to a separate half-sample:

  • Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries?

And

  • Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries even if they have lived here for a number of years, have jobs and no criminal record?

For the first item, with no qualifications, 56% favor deportations and 44% oppose them. That is down 2 points from 58%-42% in November. As for deportations of longtime residents with no criminal record, the numbers reverse, with 44% favoring such deportations and 56% opposed. That is unchanged from November.

Trump approval on immigration is 44% approve and 56% disapprove. That is slightly better than his overall job approval at 42% approve, 58% disapprove. Trump’s approval was at 41% approve, 58% disapprove in my September 2020 poll, shortly before his election loss to Joe Biden.

The generic congressional ballot finds a Democratic lead at 48% to 44% for Republicans among registered voters. That widens to 52% Democratic and 45% Republican among likely voters. 

Looking at which party would do a better job on each of eight issues, Republicans are seen as better on four, Democrats better on two and two issues are essentially tied. Between 1/4th and 1/3rd of adults says there is no difference or neither party is good on the issue.

And what do people care the most about? Inflation, the economy, and immigration top the list, with significant concern for health care and Medicare and Social Security,

I’ll be back in the coming days with much more detail on these topics plus data centers, grocery and gasoline prices, the economy, and “who do you trust?”  Stay tuned.

The full results, including press releases, toplines, crosstabs, the full instrument, and methodology are found at our website here. Note that entries are in reverse chronological order. The toplines and crosstabs under the Supreme Court release, “Court issues”, are complete, i.e. they include the political items also. Those under the “National issues” section do not include the Court items, which were held for the Court release. There are separate press releases for the Court and for National issues.