This is the 2nd GOP retirement in a competitive Assembly seat
State Rep Jessie Rodriguez announced May 7 that she will not seek reelection in November. She is the 9th Republican and 12th member of the assembly to not seek reelection. The three Democrats not returning are all seeking higher office, two for the state senate and one for governor.
Rodriguez, who was born in El Salvador, was first elected in a 2013 special election, winning reelection each cycle since 2014.
While most retiring Republicans are from rather safe districts, Rodriguez was seen as a top race for Democrats seeking to flip the Assembly majority. Republicans currently hold 54 of 99 seats, leaving Democrats looking for a net 5 seat pickup.
Members not seeking reelection are shown in the table below. Rodriguez won the 21st district by 930 votes in 2024, a 2.8 percentage point margin. At the same time, Kamala Harris won the district by 4 points. Democrats also won the district 2022 for both governor and U.S. Senate. (The past votes are calculated for the current district boundaries following redistricting in 2024.)
A visual look at these votes over time makes it clear how the district has evolved from somewhat Republican leaning to the recent strong Democratic performance.
The 21st sits on the south side of Milwaukee county, a traditionally more conservative area relative to the county.
Demographically the district is predominantly white with a significant Hispanic population, 16%, which is double the state’s percentage, and a small Black population. It has slightly more college graduates, 36%, than the state as a whole, 33%. Median income is about $10,000 above the statewide income.
As a now open seat, this should be one of the most closely competitive districts and a pickup opportunity for Democrats.