Inflation is #1 and economy is #2 most important issue

My new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds Donald Trump’s overall job approval at 38%, with disapproval at 62%, for a net -24 points underwater. This is the lowest in Marquette polls of the second term. “New low” has been the theme of Trump approval polling this spring, and my poll is no exception.

It is approval on specific issues that reveals more of what is driving down the overall ratings and why the things he is weakest on are also the most important things.

The most obvious is also the most important: The issue rated most important for people is inflation and the cost of living, at 37%, with the economy #2 at 19%. So together this is 56% of the public. And inflation & cost of living has been #1 since 2022.  

So where are Trump’s approval ratings on these most important issues? 30% on the economy and 22% on inflation. Only his handling of gas prices is lower, 19% approval.

And approval on inflation among Republicans has fallen to 45% on inflation, with single digits for independents and, of course, Democrats. GOP approval on the economy is at only 60%, 17 points below Republican approval overall. When the most important problems are your weakest issues you have a problem.

Moreover, confidence in Trump’s ability to reduce inflation has declined since the 2024 election. In December 2024, 41% thought his policies would reduce inflation in the second term. Now just 22% believe that.  And among his Republican Party, in Dec. 2024 76% thought he’d lower inflation. Now less than half, 44%, say his policies are reducing inflation.

None of this is new, but the consistency across polls, pollsters and over time is important. I’ve criticized headlines that say Trump’s support is “cratering,” “collapsing,” or “plunging” because that isn’t what the data in the second term has shown. It has shown something in many ways worse: a steady decline, month after month, each month worse than the previous one. The cumulative effect some 16 months into the second term is approval at or below his lowest of the first term, and unlike the first term when there was some recovery in the second year, 2018, there has been no period of sustained recovery in the second term, except briefly in May 2025 when he backed off on tariffs.

Which party is better?

As for the parties, people have a pretty negative view of both: 36% have a favorable view of the Democratic party and 38% are favorable to the Republican Party. As for which party would be better on various issues, Republicans have a clear advantage on crime, immigration and national defense, Democrats have clear advantages on Medicare and Social Security and on health care.

But an important shift since January is that now slightly more see the Democrats as better on the economy (by 3 percentage points) and see the Democrats as better by 7 points on inflation. The two most important issues with voters, and two that Republicans had small advantages on in January. 

Traditional Republican advantages on handling the deficit and on taxes are mere shadows of their former selves, +2 on taxes and +4 on the deficit.

Republicans still hold a sizable advantage on immigration and border security, where Trump’s approval, though below 50%, is above his overall approval. However, look back to the most important problems table and see that the immigration issue has fallen to #5, with just 6% rating it most important. It was considerably higher in 2024, but is less powerful now.

There is some importance in the substantial percentage of people who see either no difference between the parties on all issues or see neither party as good on an issue, together accounting for 28% to 50% of the public. The 50% is on handling the deficit, a view in line with a long history of both parties failing to deal with the deficit back to the brief success of the Clinton administration balancing the budget at the end of the 1990s.

The full poll results are on the Marquette Law School Poll website here. On June 4 we will release national poll results on views of the U.S. Supreme Court.