First Choice for Nominee
Using Republicans and independents who lean Republicans, Trump gets 31% and DeSantis gets 30%, a surprisingly close race. Trump leads by considerably more in other states and in national polls. What’s going on in my June Wisconsin @MULawPoll?
One might ask if independents who lean Republican are distorting this. But no. Among “pure” Republicans, Trump gets 35% and DeSantis gets 34%. Among independents who lean Republican, there are more other and undecided choices but the margin is not much changed: Trump gets 23% and DeSantis 25%.
So the close first choice race is not because of including leaners: it is a 1 point Trump margin without leaners too. (Scroll right for full table)
| Group | Chris Christie | Ron DeSantis | Larry Elder | Nikki Haley | Asa Hutchinson | Mike Pence | Vivek Ramaswamy | Tim Scott | Donald Trump | Haven’t decided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Rep+Leaners | 1 | 30 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 31 | 21 |
| Rep | 1 | 34 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 35 | 18 |
| Lean Rep | 1 | 25 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 23 | 27 |
Head-to-head second choice
DeSantis picks up a big margin in the head-to-head second choice question, DeSantis 57% to 41% for Trump. Who moves from the first choice?
Those who pick another named Republican candidate (other than DeSantis or Trump) break 74-25 for DeSantis on the 2nd choice. And the undecided on first choice break 65-28 for DeSantis. See Table 2.
Trump is a lot of Republican’s first choice, but barely a quarter switch to him as their 2nd choice.
| 1st choice | Donald Trump | Ron DeSantis | Don’t know |
|---|---|---|---|
| DeSantis | 1 | 98 | 1 |
| Trump | 98 | 2 | 0 |
| Other candidates | 25 | 74 | 1 |
| Undecided | 28 | 65 | 7 |
Is this because Republicans have turned against Trump?
Despite getting just 31% of first choice votes, Wisconsin Republicans still like Trump. Of all Reps and leaners, Trump favorability is 68% and unfavorable is 30% with a tiny 2% who say they haven’t heard enough about him.
Favorability is a shade higher with pure Reps, 72%, and a good bit lower, though still net positive at 60%, among leaners. Those ratings are shown in Table 3 (a). In October 2022, Trump was 78% favorable among Reps and 62% favorable among leaners, so a little decline with both, but not massive change.
DeSantis favorabiity is shown in Table 3 (b). He is 1 point behind Trump overall, 2 points above Trump on favorable with pure Republicans, and 7 points below Trump among leaners, but with much more haven’t heard enough and less unfavorable.
So there may be a small recent decline in Trump’s favorable ratings with Reps and with leaners, it isn’t a lot compared to where he was in October 2022.
Table 3: Favorability by Rep and Lean Rep Party ID
| Group | Favorable | Unfavorable | Haven’t heard enough |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Rep+Leaners | 68 | 30 | 2 |
| Rep | 72 | 25 | 3 |
| Lean Rep | 60 | 39 | 0 |
| Group | Favorable | Unfavorable | Haven’t heard enough |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Rep+Leaners | 67 | 14 | 20 |
| Rep | 74 | 10 | 16 |
| Lean Rep | 53 | 21 | 26 |
Well, did they just not vote for him in 2020?
Maybe these are somehow less Trump supportive Reps than they should be.
Asked to recall their vote in 2020, 95% of Reps say they voted for Trump, as do 79% of the leaners. In our late October 2020 poll, 90% of Reps and 79% of leaners said they were voting for Trump. This is not a peculiarly anti-Trump sample of Republicans.
Table 4: 2020 vote recall by party id, and Oct. 2020 pre-election vote
| Group | Donald Trump | Joe Biden | Someone else |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Rep+Leaners | 90 | 5 | 5 |
| Rep | 95 | 4 | 1 |
| Lean Rep | 79 | 7 | 13 |
| Group | Donald Trump | Joe Biden | Jo Jorgensen |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Rep+Leaners | 86 | 7 | 3 |
| Rep | 90 | 6 | 1 |
| Lean Rep | 79 | 8 | 6 |
Maybe they just aren’t as into you as they once were
There is a clear long term change in GOP views of Trump in Wisconsin since 2020. While he retains a core of vigorous supporters, Republicans and leaners do not have as favorable a view of Trump as they did in 2020. Table 5 shows this trend since January of 2020 until June of 2023.
| Poll dates | Favorable | Unfavorable | Haven’t heard enough | Don’t know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/8-12/20 | 83 | 16 | 0 | 1 |
| 2/19-23/20 | 87 | 10 | 1 | 1 |
| 3/24-29/20 | 84 | 12 | 0 | 3 |
| 5/3-7/20 | 88 | 9 | 1 | 1 |
| 6/14-18/20 | 81 | 13 | 3 | 3 |
| 8/4-9/20 | 83 | 14 | 1 | 2 |
| 8/30-9/3/20 | 80 | 15 | 3 | 1 |
| 9/30-10/4/20 | 85 | 13 | 2 | 1 |
| 10/21-25/20 | 88 | 11 | 1 | 0 |
| 8/3-8/21 | 75 | 18 | 3 | 3 |
| 10/26-31/21 | 72 | 23 | 2 | 4 |
| 2/22-27/22 | 70 | 21 | 3 | 5 |
| 4/19-24/22 | 68 | 24 | 3 | 4 |
| 6/14-20/22 | 75 | 19 | 3 | 3 |
| 8/10-15/22 | 71 | 21 | 2 | 5 |
| 9/6-11/22 | 72 | 24 | 0 | 4 |
| 10/3-9/22 | 70 | 22 | 2 | 6 |
| 10/24-11/1/22 | 72 | 17 | 2 | 6 |
| 6/8-13/23 | 68 | 30 | 2 | 1 |
For completeness, Table 6 shows the trends for pure Republicans and for leaners.
Table 6: Trump favorability, Jan. 2020-June 2023, among Replicans and leaners separately
| Poll dates | Favorable | Unfavorable | Haven’t heard enough | Don’t know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/8-12/20 | 87 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| 2/19-23/20 | 91 | 7 | 1 | 1 |
| 3/24-29/20 | 88 | 10 | 1 | 2 |
| 5/3-7/20 | 92 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| 6/14-18/20 | 84 | 12 | 1 | 4 |
| 8/4-9/20 | 85 | 13 | 1 | 1 |
| 8/30-9/3/20 | 84 | 11 | 3 | 1 |
| 9/30-10/4/20 | 90 | 9 | 1 | 0 |
| 10/21-25/20 | 89 | 10 | 1 | 0 |
| 8/3-8/21 | 83 | 12 | 3 | 2 |
| 10/26-31/21 | 77 | 18 | 2 | 2 |
| 2/22-27/22 | 80 | 11 | 2 | 5 |
| 4/19-24/22 | 73 | 19 | 2 | 4 |
| 6/14-20/22 | 81 | 17 | 1 | 0 |
| 8/10-15/22 | 77 | 15 | 2 | 5 |
| 9/6-11/22 | 79 | 16 | 0 | 4 |
| 10/3-9/22 | 78 | 15 | 2 | 5 |
| 10/24-11/1/22 | 78 | 12 | 3 | 5 |
| 6/8-13/23 | 72 | 25 | 3 | 0 |
| Poll dates | Favorable | Unfavorable | Haven’t heard enough | Don’t know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/8-12/20 | 76 | 22 | 1 | 1 |
| 2/19-23/20 | 78 | 18 | 1 | 3 |
| 3/24-29/20 | 78 | 17 | 0 | 5 |
| 5/3-7/20 | 81 | 16 | 1 | 1 |
| 6/14-18/20 | 76 | 17 | 6 | 1 |
| 8/4-9/20 | 78 | 16 | 2 | 3 |
| 8/30-9/3/20 | 73 | 25 | 2 | 0 |
| 9/30-10/4/20 | 74 | 19 | 5 | 2 |
| 10/21-25/20 | 84 | 14 | 1 | 0 |
| 8/3-8/21 | 60 | 30 | 4 | 5 |
| 10/26-31/21 | 60 | 31 | 2 | 6 |
| 2/22-27/22 | 53 | 37 | 5 | 4 |
| 4/19-24/22 | 58 | 35 | 4 | 2 |
| 6/14-20/22 | 62 | 23 | 7 | 8 |
| 8/10-15/22 | 61 | 33 | 1 | 6 |
| 9/6-11/22 | 57 | 39 | 0 | 4 |
| 10/3-9/22 | 54 | 35 | 2 | 7 |
| 10/24-11/1/22 | 62 | 26 | 1 | 8 |
| 6/8-13/23 | 60 | 39 | 0 | 1 |
Vote for Biden? Oh, goodness no.
Our GOP respondents aren’t as into Trump as in the past, but crossing over to vote for Biden remains a bridge too far. That goes for both Trump and DeSantis when matched against Biden, though DeSantis does a bit better with leaners, in Table 7.
Table 7: 2024 vote by party strength
| Party stength | Donald Trump | Joe Biden | Haven’t decided | Don’t know | Refused |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rep | 93 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Lean Rep | 78 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 3 |
| Party stength | Ron DeSantis | Joe Biden | Haven’t decided | Don’t know | Refused |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rep | 94 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Lean Rep | 87 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Conclusions
Wisconsin Republicans are less attached to Trump than in 2020, are considering alternatives or are undecided, but not quick to embrace Trump if he isn’t already their 1st choice. But for the general election, they remain strongly Republican regardless of the candidates, and quite unwilling to vote for Biden.