Tag Archives: MULawPoll

Trump and Wisconsin Republicans

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First Choice for Nominee

Using Republicans and independents who lean Republicans, Trump gets 31% and DeSantis gets 30%, a surprisingly close race. Trump leads by considerably more in other states and in national polls. What’s going on in my June Wisconsin @MULawPoll?

One might ask if independents who lean Republican are distorting this. But no. Among “pure” Republicans, Trump gets 35% and DeSantis gets 34%. Among independents who lean Republican, there are more other and undecided choices but the margin is not much changed: Trump gets 23% and DeSantis 25%.

So the close first choice race is not because of including leaners: it is a 1 point Trump margin without leaners too. (Scroll right for full table)

GroupChris ChristieRon DeSantisLarry ElderNikki HaleyAsa HutchinsonMike PenceVivek RamaswamyTim ScottDonald TrumpHaven’t decided
All Rep+Leaners1300306353121
Rep1340105243518
Lean Rep1251617462327

Head-to-head second choice

DeSantis picks up a big margin in the head-to-head second choice question, DeSantis 57% to 41% for Trump. Who moves from the first choice?

Those who pick another named Republican candidate (other than DeSantis or Trump) break 74-25 for DeSantis on the 2nd choice. And the undecided on first choice break 65-28 for DeSantis. See Table 2.

Trump is a lot of Republican’s first choice, but barely a quarter switch to him as their 2nd choice.

1st choiceDonald TrumpRon DeSantisDon’t know
DeSantis1981
Trump9820
Other candidates25741
Undecided28657

Is this because Republicans have turned against Trump?

Despite getting just 31% of first choice votes, Wisconsin Republicans still like Trump. Of all Reps and leaners, Trump favorability is 68% and unfavorable is 30% with a tiny 2% who say they haven’t heard enough about him.

Favorability is a shade higher with pure Reps, 72%, and a good bit lower, though still net positive at 60%, among leaners. Those ratings are shown in Table 3 (a). In October 2022, Trump was 78% favorable among Reps and 62% favorable among leaners, so a little decline with both, but not massive change.

DeSantis favorabiity is shown in Table 3 (b). He is 1 point behind Trump overall, 2 points above Trump on favorable with pure Republicans, and 7 points below Trump among leaners, but with much more haven’t heard enough and less unfavorable.

So there may be a small recent decline in Trump’s favorable ratings with Reps and with leaners, it isn’t a lot compared to where he was in October 2022.

Table 3: Favorability by Rep and Lean Rep Party ID

GroupFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enough
All Rep+Leaners68302
Rep72253
Lean Rep60390

GroupFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enough
All Rep+Leaners671420
Rep741016
Lean Rep532126

Well, did they just not vote for him in 2020?

Maybe these are somehow less Trump supportive Reps than they should be.

Asked to recall their vote in 2020, 95% of Reps say they voted for Trump, as do 79% of the leaners. In our late October 2020 poll, 90% of Reps and 79% of leaners said they were voting for Trump. This is not a peculiarly anti-Trump sample of Republicans.

Table 4: 2020 vote recall by party id, and Oct. 2020 pre-election vote

GroupDonald TrumpJoe BidenSomeone else
All Rep+Leaners9055
Rep9541
Lean Rep79713

GroupDonald TrumpJoe BidenJo Jorgensen
All Rep+Leaners8673
Rep9061
Lean Rep7986

Maybe they just aren’t as into you as they once were

There is a clear long term change in GOP views of Trump in Wisconsin since 2020. While he retains a core of vigorous supporters, Republicans and leaners do not have as favorable a view of Trump as they did in 2020. Table 5 shows this trend since January of 2020 until June of 2023.

Poll datesFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enoughDon’t know
1/8-12/20831601
2/19-23/20871011
3/24-29/20841203
5/3-7/2088911
6/14-18/20811333
8/4-9/20831412
8/30-9/3/20801531
9/30-10/4/20851321
10/21-25/20881110
8/3-8/21751833
10/26-31/21722324
2/22-27/22702135
4/19-24/22682434
6/14-20/22751933
8/10-15/22712125
9/6-11/22722404
10/3-9/22702226
10/24-11/1/22721726
6/8-13/23683021

For completeness, Table 6 shows the trends for pure Republicans and for leaners.

Table 6: Trump favorability, Jan. 2020-June 2023, among Replicans and leaners separately

Poll datesFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enoughDon’t know
1/8-12/20871200
2/19-23/2091711
3/24-29/20881012
5/3-7/2092511
6/14-18/20841214
8/4-9/20851311
8/30-9/3/20841131
9/30-10/4/2090910
10/21-25/20891010
8/3-8/21831232
10/26-31/21771822
2/22-27/22801125
4/19-24/22731924
6/14-20/22811710
8/10-15/22771525
9/6-11/22791604
10/3-9/22781525
10/24-11/1/22781235
6/8-13/23722530
Poll datesFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enoughDon’t know
1/8-12/20762211
2/19-23/20781813
3/24-29/20781705
5/3-7/20811611
6/14-18/20761761
8/4-9/20781623
8/30-9/3/20732520
9/30-10/4/20741952
10/21-25/20841410
8/3-8/21603045
10/26-31/21603126
2/22-27/22533754
4/19-24/22583542
6/14-20/22622378
8/10-15/22613316
9/6-11/22573904
10/3-9/22543527
10/24-11/1/22622618
6/8-13/23603901

Vote for Biden? Oh, goodness no.

Our GOP respondents aren’t as into Trump as in the past, but crossing over to vote for Biden remains a bridge too far. That goes for both Trump and DeSantis when matched against Biden, though DeSantis does a bit better with leaners, in Table 7.

Table 7: 2024 vote by party strength

Party stengthDonald TrumpJoe BidenHaven’t decidedDon’t knowRefused
Rep935100
Lean Rep7812613

Party stengthRon DeSantisJoe BidenHaven’t decidedDon’t knowRefused
Rep942210
Lean Rep8712200

Conclusions

Wisconsin Republicans are less attached to Trump than in 2020, are considering alternatives or are undecided, but not quick to embrace Trump if he isn’t already their 1st choice. But for the general election, they remain strongly Republican regardless of the candidates, and quite unwilling to vote for Biden.

Trust and Question Wording

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Here comes a bit about survey question wording. For those just tuning in, NPORS=National Public Opinion Reference Survey (NPORS) from Pew, which released their 2021 update today (Sept 24) (thanks, Pew!)

According to my national @MULawPoll released this week 56% say “most people can be trusted” and 44% say “most people can’t be trusted”. But today Pew released their NPORS survey conducted this summer and find just 32% say most can be trusted. What’s going on??

This difference, of course, scared the bejeezus out of me. How can Pew’s National Public Opinion Reference Survey differ so much from mine, conducted at a similar time and on a question we would expect to be a stable attitude?? Question wording, my friends. Question wording.

My question is worded “Generally speaking, would you say that most people can be trusted, or most people can’t be trusted?” That was, in fact, the wording Pew used as recently as March 2020 and July 2020. In those 2 Pew got 58% and 53% most can be trusted, close to my 56%

So did the world go all “untrusty” since 2020? Pew changed the question in 2021. Now they asked “Which statement comes closer to your view even if neither is exactly right: Most people can be trusted or You can’t be too careful in dealing with people”

And the marginals flipped: With this wording 32% most can be trusted, 68% you can’t be too careful. A year ago in Pew’s July, with the previous wording: 58% most can be trusted, 39% most cannot be trusted. So which wording should we trust?

Pew’s original wording produced pretty consistent results (with slight differences in the stem to the question but not to response options): Nov 2018 52-47, March 2020 53-46, July 2020 58-39. So quite a change to 32-68 with the “new” wording.

But (as they say) the “new” wording is actually the one Pew generally used before the 2018-2020 polls cited above. They had generally used the “you can’t be too careful” as the alternative. And it makes a big difference.

Here are Pew studies with “can’t be too careful”: Apr 2017: 42 (trusted)-57 (can’t be too careful); Apr 2017 42-58; Feb 2016 43-56; Aug 2014 52-48(a); Aug 2014 47-51(b); Apr 2012 37-59. ( (a)Web, (b)Phone, same field dates)

This isn’t a “house” issue with Pew. The GSS has asked the “can’t be too careful” version for a while: GSS-NORC 2018 32-63; GSS-NORC 2016 31-64; GSS-NORC 2014 30-65; GSS-NORC 2012 32-64. The stability we’d expect on this item over time and close to Pew’s current 32-68.

So… both wordings appear stable and across survey houses (my 56-44, Pew’s 58-39, 53-46, 52-47) but also GSS and Pew’s flipped 32-63, 31-64, 30-65, 32-64 and 32-68.

Which wording we should use is less clear. The “most can’t be trusted” is clear and direct, “can’t be too careful” touches on suspicion. A much deeper analysis is needed of this issue. But this is a great example of seemingly similar items producing big differences.

I think there is a lot to be said for consistency, so I don’t expect to change my wording. Also this isn’t a complaint about Pew. The variation in wording they used actually allows us to understand the effect of question wording. A big help.

The Pew NPORS is a major service to the survey research world. But question wording matters and we need to take it into account, especially with a “reference survey” that influences all of us. Also the trust item was not included in the NPORS for 2020, so surprised me.

There are other issues to consider where question wording and item construction differs in the NPORS (looking at you, party ID and leaners!) so let’s all take advantage of this great resource. But as someone said: “Trust, but verify.”