Generally modest differences but a few notable shifts

People are interested in the differences between samples of all adults, registered and likely voters. Here is a table showing these comparisons for my Marquette Law School Poll national survey, May 20-26, 2026. For adults, n=1001, MOE=+/-3.4. For registered voters, n=857, MOE=+/-3.6. For likely voters, n=576, MOE=+/-4.4.

For most variables there are modest differences between adults, registered and likely voters. Trump approval shows a larger difference, as does right direction/wrong track. A significant part of the answer to “why” is in the last panel of the table. MAGA Republicans are notably more likely to vote than non-MAGA Republicans. Further, MAGA Republicans are exceptionally approving of Trump, 93%, and pleased with the direction of the country, 78%. This contrasts sharply with non-MAGA Republicans whose approval of Trump is only 36% and few of whom think the country is headed in the right direction, 29%. MAGA Republicans are more likely to say they are certain to vote, 67%, than are non-MAGA Republicans, 43%. These differences also explain much of the success of Trump endorsed candidates in GOP primaries. Among all Republicans, MAGA makes up 72% and non-MAGA 28% of the party.

That said, here are the comparisons across samples. (It is a long table if you are on a small screen.)