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The paradox that an unpopular Democratic party keeps winning

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Democrats have reservations about their party but unite in opposing Trump

The Democratic party is less popular than the Republican party in both Wisconsin and national Marquette Law School polls since Jan. 2025. Yet Democrats keep strongly over-performing in both general and special elections in 2025 and 2026. Most recently Democrats flipped the Florida legislative seat that includes Mar-a-Lago, a district that went +11 for Trump in 2024 but went +2 for the Democratic legislative candidate on March 24. How can this paradox be explained?

I previously looked at this in my national polling here. Today let’s look at the most competitive state in the nation since 2016, Wisconsin. Data are from Marquette Law School polls of registered voters in October 2025, and February and March 2026.

Both parties are underwater, but Democrats more so

Both parties have net negative favorability ratings, meaning more have unfavorable than favorable views of each party. Since October there has been little change in overall favorability for each, with Democratic party favorability more net negative than for the Republican party. GOP net favorability has been around -10 points while Democratic net favorability has been twice as large, in the -20s.

Where does this added negativity to the Democrats come from? Not from the opposite party. Republicans have extremely negative views of Democrats and Democrats return the favor with equally net negative views of Republicans. Likewise this difference between parties doesn’t come from independents, who strongly dislike both parties though they give Republicans an 8 point more net negative rating than they give Democrats.

The partisan gap comes in feelings about voters’ own party. Republicans give the GOP a net positive +74 point rating, but Democrats give their party just a +56 point rating. Our partisans hate the other party equally but don’t love themselves equally.

As in horror movies, “the call is coming from inside the house.”

The same result is seen in my national polling where we also ask about approval of the job Democrats in Congress and Republicans in Congress are doing. Partisans strongly disapprove of the other congressional party but Democrats are less approving of congressional Democrats while Republicans are more approving of their party in Congress. Democratic discontent applies equally to favorability of the party in general and specifically to the job performance of the congressional party.

This asymmetry in partisan views take a different turn when the question is about President Donald Trump. Across the three polls since October Trump’s overall approval is 44% and disapproval is 54%, for a net rating of -10 percentage points. Here, though, Democrats are stunningly united in disapproval. Republicans strongly approve but not so much as Democrats disapprove. And independents are also strong in their disapproval of the president. This negative balance, seen in both Wisconsin and national Marquette polls, explains why Republican candidates have suffered in elections in 2025 and 2026 despite Trump winning the presidency in 2024.

Democrats are less thrilled with their party but virtually all are agreed in their dislike for Trump. This, plus strong independent dissatisfaction with Trump, has powered Democratic over-performance and wins in the 2025 general elections in Virginia and New Jersey and in special elections throughout the country.

Where dissatisfaction comes from within each party

Which Democrats are less satisfied with their party, and where does Republican dissatisfaction arise in the GOP?

Very few Republicans consider themselves to be liberal or very liberal, and very few Democrats describe themselves as conservative or very conservative. I lump these few outliers in with moderates in each party. (To see how that has changed over the past 15 years in Wisconsin see my earlier post here.)

Here we look at very conservative to moderate Republicans and at moderate to very liberal Democrats and their favorability to their own parties.

In the GOP those who are very conservative have the highest net positive feelings for the Republican party, and those who are conservative are almost as positive. Where there is less positivity is with moderate Republicans, who remain solidly positive but considerably less so than either type of conservative.

For the Democrats, those who are very liberal are the least positive to the party, just +24 points net favorable, while liberals are most positive and moderates pretty positive but not enormously so. Comparing Democrats with Republicans, very liberal Democrats are much less favorable to the Democratic party than very conservative Republicans are to their party. And liberal Democrats are less positive than conservative Republicans to their respective parties. Only among moderates does the Democratic party enjoy a modest advantage in net favorability, a +56 vs +45 among Republicans.

The asymmetry between parties is not only with one ideological camp, but the strikingly low favorability among very liberal Democrats reflects the ongoing debate within the party between those urging moderation and those pushing for a more clearly liberal or progressive party.

Some of these discrepancies are likely due to the natural frustration of a minority party unable to control the congressional agenda and able at best to block or stall legislation in the Senate. But the differences by ideology also point to a divide over the direction of the Democratic party.

These are the things that explain why the Democratic party has consistently less favorable ratings than the Republican party, and that the discrepancy is substantially due to differences within the parties.

The paradox unriddled

The paradox of strong electoral performance by the less popular party is driven by opposite forces. Democrats differ about themselves but they nearly unanimously oppose Donald Trump, and they are joined by solid opposition to Trump among independents. Republicans have maintained very strong support for Trump within their party, but not so strong as Democratic opposition and with quite weak appeal among independents.

Democrats may not agree on what they are for, and are frustrated by their party’s inability to block Trump, but they absolutely know what (or who) they are against. This has provided a strong electoral advantage when Republican candidates across the country have so closely tied themselves to President Trump, and where dissent brings presidential condemnation and primary challenges. November is seven months away and the details of candidates and issues are not yet certain, but it is against this background that the less popular party nonetheless enjoys a midterm advantage.

What Wisconsin Democrats Think

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Extremely unified in opposition to Trump and his works

We often look at polls for the toplines, the balance of opinion across the full population. But it is important to understand the very substantial divisions in our politics that are masked by that single topline. Today I continue a series of posts on what partisans and independents in Wisconsin think. I’m doing them one at a time to stay focused on each party. We’ll come back with some comparisons in the final post. Today let’s look at the Democrats. (See the first post on the Republicans here.)

Democrats are intensely opposed to President Donald Trump and (almost) all of his policies. Literally no Democrats, zero percent, think tariffs help Wisconsin farmers. Three percent or less are favorable to MAGA, think Trump will reduce inflation, approve of Trump’s handling of his job, believe the Alex Pretti shooting was justified, view ICE favorably or approve of how ICE is enforcing immigration laws, or view the Republican party favorably.

Just slightly more, 6%, favor deporting immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally including long term residents with no criminal record. Ten percent think they are better off now than a year ago. And 10% think we are deporting mostly criminals.

In state affairs, 15% of Democrats think the benefits of data centers outweigh their cost, and 88% approve of how Gov. Tony Evers is handling his job.

The chart shows Democratic opinion on 23 topics covered in my Feb. 11-19, 2026 Marquette Law School Poll of Wisconsin registered voters.

There is a larger minority view among Democrats on school funding with 21% saying schools must live within their budgets rather than receive more state aid, and 25%, one in four Democrats, favor deporting immigrants in the country illegally (without mention of length of residence or non-criminal status.) Majorities mirror the school budget item with 79% favoring Evers’ 400 year veto and 78% satisfied with their local public schools. And 77% are favorable to the Democratic party.

The minority faction of the party passes 30% for approving of the (Republican controlled) legislature, favoring online sports betting, and saying it is more important to hold down property taxes than to increase K-12 funding. Of course majorities of the party take the opposite view on these topics but here there is considerably less unanimity than when Trump is involved.

The Wisconsin Supreme Court gets a 65% approval rating, with 15% lacking an opinion.

Finally, 46% say they are living comfortably, as opposed to just getting by or struggling.

Most important concerns

The top issue concern for Democrats is inflation and the cost of living, followed by health insurance. Close behind are gun violence, jobs and the economy and abortion policy. Topics of less concern are the cost of electricity, taxes in general, and property taxes specifically. The topic of least concern to Democrats is illegal immigration and border security.

While Democrats are incredibly united in opposition to national issues related to Trump and his policies, there is a bit less unity on state issues surrounding schools and property taxes. To be sure there are sizable majorities in favor of school funding but a fifth to a third of Democrats favor constraints on school budgets and prioritize holding down property taxes. And one in four favor deportations, except when asked if that includes those with no criminal record.

Democratic issue priorities stress inflation and health care but rank illegal immigration at the very bottom of concerns, with taxes only a little higher.

There are other issues not covered in this poll that could also become important in the fall elections, but will await new polling.

Next time: What Independents think.